# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: May 9, 2026 - Today's Best H2H Advantages

> Who owns their matchup tonight? 15 games analyzed through career H2H batting average, OPS, and strikeout rate - Jake Rogers tops the board. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-05-09  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Batter vs Pitcher, H2H Matchups, MLB Props, Daily Picks, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-may-9-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Saturday, May 9, 2026** are Jake Rogers (Score: 86 — 0.667 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 9 career AB vs Michael Wacha), Sean Murphy (Score: 78 — 0.500 AVG, 1.792 OPS in 6 career AB vs Blake Snell), Jonah Heim (Score: 66 — 0.400 AVG, 1.400 OPS in 5 career AB vs Shane Baz). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 5-factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - May 9, 2026

15-game slate, 87 qualified matchups. These career head-to-head lines stand out.

## Hitters to Watch Today

- **Jake Rogers** — .667 AVG & 2.000 OPS with 1 HR in 9 AB vs. Michael Wacha | 1+ Hit (-151)
- **Sean Murphy** — .500 AVG & 1.792 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Blake Snell | 1+ Hit (-128)
- **Jonah Heim** — .400 AVG & 1.400 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Shane Baz
- **Marcus Semien** — .400 AVG & 1.400 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Merrill Kelly | 1+ Hit (-178)
- **Daulton Varsho** — .800 AVG & 1.600 OPS with 0 HR in 5 AB vs. Jack Kochanowicz
- **JJ Bleday** — .600 AVG & 1.567 OPS with 0 HR in 10 AB vs. Spencer Arrighetti | 1+ Hit (-158)

> **Yesterday's H2H matchups:** [MLB H2H Matchups - May 8](/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-may-8-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

| Matchup | Pitchers | Time |
|---------|----------|------|
| LAA @ TOR | Jack Kochanowicz vs Trey Yesavage | 3:07 PM ET |
| ATH @ BAL | Aaron Civale vs Shane Baz | 4:05 PM ET |
| HOU @ CIN | Spencer Arrighetti vs Chase Burns | 4:10 PM ET |
| TB @ BOS | Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle | 4:10 PM ET |
| WSH @ MIA | Zack Littell vs Janson Junk | 4:10 PM ET |
| COL @ PHI | Kyle Freeland vs Aaron Nola | 6:05 PM ET |
| MIN @ CLE | Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee | 6:10 PM ET |
| CHC @ TEX | Edward Cabrera vs Jack Leiter | 7:05 PM ET |
| DET @ KC | Burch Smith vs Michael Wacha | 7:10 PM ET |
| SEA @ CWS | Luis Castillo vs Anthony Kay | 7:10 PM ET |
| NYY @ MIL | Cam Schlittler vs Kyle Harrison | 7:10 PM ET |
| NYM @ AZ | Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly | 7:15 PM ET |
| STL @ SD | Dustin May vs Randy Vásquez | 7:15 PM ET |
| PIT @ SF | Braxton Ashcraft vs Landen Roupp | 9:05 PM ET |
| ATL @ LAD | Spencer Strider vs Blake Snell | 9:10 PM ET |

## 1. Jake Rogers (DET) vs Michael Wacha (RHP)

0.667 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 9 career AB | Kauffman Stadium | **1+ Hit (-151)**

*Career: 6-for-9 · .667 · 1 HR · 3 XBH · 2.000 OPS*

When OPS hits 2.000 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Rogers is 6-for-9 against Wacha with the kind of contact that drives runs.

Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 9 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Only 0 strikeouts in 9 AB shows the eye is dialed in here.

## 2. Sean Murphy (ATL) vs Blake Snell (LHP)

0.500 AVG, 1.792 OPS in 6 career AB | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | **1+ Hit (-128)**

*Career: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.792 OPS · 1 K · 2 BB*

When OPS hits 1.792 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Murphy is 3-for-6 against Snell with the kind of contact that drives runs.

Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-128).

## 3. Jonah Heim (ATH) vs Shane Baz (RHP)

0.400 AVG, 1.400 OPS in 5 career AB | Oriole Park at Camden Yards

*Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.400 OPS · 1 K*

Career batting average against Baz: .400 in 5 AB. Heim has the kind of pitch recognition on this arm that does not show up against the rest of the league.

Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace.

> Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats).

## 4. Marcus Semien (NYM) vs Merrill Kelly (RHP)

0.400 AVG, 1.400 OPS in 5 career AB | Chase Field | **1+ Hit (-178)**

*Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.400 OPS · 1 K*

.400 is a real number when it holds up over 5 at-bats. Semien sees something against Kelly that other hitters do not.

Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Chase Field, which plays hitter-friendly with the roof closed.

## 5. Daulton Varsho (TOR) vs Jack Kochanowicz (RHP)

0.800 AVG, 1.600 OPS in 5 career AB | Rogers Centre

*Career: 4-for-5 · .800 · 1.600 OPS*

Career batting average against Kochanowicz: .800 in 5 AB. Varsho has the kind of pitch recognition on this arm that does not show up against the rest of the league.

Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive.

## 6. JJ Bleday (CIN) vs Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)

0.600 AVG, 1.567 OPS in 10 career AB | Great American Ball Park | **1+ Hit (-158)**

*Career: 6-for-10 · .600 · 3 XBH · 1.567 OPS · 2 K · 2 BB*

When OPS hits 1.567 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Bleday is 6-for-10 against Arrighetti with the kind of contact that drives runs.

Small sample, but the dominance is notable. 3 extra-base hits in 10 AB — when he connects, the ball gets out of the infield in a hurry. 2 walks in 10 AB show he reads this arm well even when he is not swinging.

## 7. Jake McCarthy (COL) vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

0.400 AVG, 1.467 OPS in 15 career AB | Citizens Bank Park

*Career: 6-for-15 · .400 · 2 HR · 5 XBH · 1.467 OPS · 6 K*

McCarthy's slash line against Nola translates to a 1.467 OPS over 15 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play.

Moderate sample — a real pattern is emerging. A home run every 8 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. 5 extra-base hits in 15 AB — when he connects, the ball gets out of the infield in a hurry.

## 8. Willson Contreras (BOS) vs Nick Martinez (RHP)

0.429 AVG, 1.357 OPS in 7 career AB | Fenway Park

*Career: 3-for-7 · .429 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.357 OPS · 1 K · 1 BB*

Contreras's slash line against Martinez translates to a 1.357 OPS over 7 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play.

Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 7 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Fenway Park, where the Green Monster inflates extra-base hit rates.

## Hit Props to Consider

- **Jake Rogers 1+ Hit (-151)** — 0.667 career AVG vs Michael Wacha (9 AB). Implied: 60%.
- **Sean Murphy 1+ Hit (-128)** — 0.500 career AVG vs Blake Snell (6 AB). Implied: 56%.
- **Marcus Semien 1+ Hit (-178)** — 0.400 career AVG vs Merrill Kelly (5 AB). Implied: 64%.
- **JJ Bleday 1+ Hit (-158)** — 0.600 career AVG vs Spencer Arrighetti (10 AB). Implied: 61%.

*Lines via Draftkings. Always shop for the best number. Confirm starting pitcher before betting.*

## Related Guides

- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Find More Matchups

These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate.

Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six.

[Dinger of the Day Picks](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-9-2026) | [NRFI Picks](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-9-2026) | [Top Plays](/top-plays)

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB H2H Matchup Previews](/blog/stream/mlb-h2h-matchups)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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