# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: May 4, 2026 - Today's Best H2H Advantages > MLB batter vs pitcher matchups for May 4, 2026 - Jazz Chisholm Jr. leads the board across 12 games. Career head-to-head data analyzed and scored. **Date:** 2026-05-04 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Batter vs Pitcher, H2H Matchups, MLB Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-may-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Monday, May 4, 2026** are Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Score: 88 — 0.714 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 7 career AB vs Shane Baz), Vinnie Pasquantino (Score: 82 — 0.600 AVG, 1.847 OPS in 15 career AB vs Tanner Bibee), Otto Lopez (Score: 76 — 0.667 AVG, 1.667 OPS in 6 career AB vs Aaron Nola). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 5-factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - May 4, 2026 56 batter-pitcher matchups with 5+ career AB scored across 12 games. These are tonight's biggest H2H advantages. ## Hitters to Watch Today - **Jazz Chisholm Jr.** — .714 AVG & 2.000 OPS with 1 HR in 7 AB vs. Shane Baz | 1+ Hit (-187) - **Vinnie Pasquantino** — .600 AVG & 1.847 OPS with 2 HR in 15 AB vs. Tanner Bibee | 1+ Hit (-238) - **Otto Lopez** — .667 AVG & 1.667 OPS with 0 HR in 6 AB vs. Aaron Nola | 2+ Hits (+196) - **Aaron Judge** — .400 AVG & 1.500 OPS with 2 HR in 10 AB vs. Shane Baz | 1+ Hit (-256) - **Elly De La Cruz** — .400 AVG & 1.400 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Edward Cabrera | 1+ Hit (-237) - **Vladimir Guerrero Jr.** — .200 AVG & 1.133 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Nick Martinez | 2+ Hits (+150) > **Yesterday's H2H matchups:** [MLB H2H Matchups - May 3](/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-may-3-2026) ## Tonight's Slate | Matchup | Pitchers | Time | |---------|----------|------| | NYM @ COL | TBD vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 5:40 PM ET | | BOS @ DET | Payton Tolle vs Tarik Skubal | 6:40 PM ET | | TOR @ TB | Eric Lauer vs Nick Martinez | 6:40 PM ET | | PHI @ MIA | Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk | 6:40 PM ET | | BAL @ NYY | Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler | 7:05 PM ET | | CIN @ CHC | Chase Petty vs Edward Cabrera | 7:40 PM ET | | CLE @ KC | Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha | 7:40 PM ET | | MIL @ STL | Chad Patrick vs Kyle Leahy | 7:45 PM ET | | LAD @ HOU | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Steven Okert | 8:10 PM ET | | CWS @ LAA | Davis Martin vs José Soriano | 9:38 PM ET | | ATL @ SEA | JR Ritchie vs Logan Gilbert | 9:40 PM ET | | SD @ SF | Randy Vásquez vs Trevor McDonald | 9:45 PM ET | ## 1. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) vs Shane Baz (RHP) 0.714 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 7 career AB | Yankee Stadium | **1+ Hit (-187)** *Career: 5-for-7 · .714 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 2.000 OPS · 1 K* Jr.'s slash line against Baz translates to a 2.000 OPS over 7 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 7 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Yankee Stadium, with its short right-field porch. ## 2. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) vs Tanner Bibee (RHP) 0.600 AVG, 1.847 OPS in 15 career AB | Kauffman Stadium | **1+ Hit (-238)** *Career: 9-for-15 · .600 · 2 HR · 4 XBH · 1.847 OPS · 1 K · 2 BB* A 1.847 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare — and Pasquantino owns it against Bibee across 15 at-bats. That is run-producing dominance, not noise. Moderate sample — a real pattern is emerging. A home run every 8 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Only 1 strikeout in 15 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. ## 3. Otto Lopez (MIA) vs Aaron Nola (RHP) 0.667 AVG, 1.667 OPS in 6 career AB | loanDepot park | **2+ Hits (+196)** *Career: 4-for-6 · .667 · 2 XBH · 1.667 OPS* When OPS hits 1.667 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Lopez is 4-for-6 against Nola with the kind of contact that drives runs. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. Currently listed at 2+ Hits (+196). > Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## 4. Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Shane Baz (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 1.500 OPS in 10 career AB | Yankee Stadium | **1+ Hit (-256)** *Career: 4-for-10 · .400 · 2 HR · 2 XBH · 1.500 OPS · 1 K · 2 BB* Judge's slash line against Baz translates to a 1.500 OPS over 10 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Only 1 strikeout in 10 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. ## 5. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs Edward Cabrera (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 1.400 OPS in 5 career AB | Wrigley Field | **1+ Hit (-237)** *Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.400 OPS · 2 K* Career batting average against Cabrera: .400 in 5 AB. Cruz has the kind of pitch recognition on this arm that does not show up against the rest of the league. Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Wrigley Field, where wind conditions can boost offense. ## 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs Nick Martinez (RHP) 0.200 AVG, 1.133 OPS in 5 career AB | Tropicana Field | **2+ Hits (+150)** *Career: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.133 OPS · 1 BB* Career batting average against Martinez: .200 in 5 AB. Jr. has the kind of pitch recognition on this arm that does not show up against the rest of the league. Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 2+ Hits (+150). ## 7. Christopher Morel (MIA) vs Aaron Nola (RHP) 0.333 AVG, 1.429 OPS in 6 career AB | loanDepot park *Career: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.429 OPS · 3 K · 1 BB* When OPS hits 1.429 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Morel is 2-for-6 against Nola with the kind of contact that drives runs. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. ## 8. Kyle Tucker (LAD) vs Steven Okert (LHP) 0.200 AVG, 1.000 OPS in 5 career AB | Daikin Park | **1+ Hit (-211)** *Career: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.000 OPS* .200 is a real number when it holds up over 5 at-bats. Tucker sees something against Okert that other hitters do not. Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-211). ## Hit Props to Consider - **Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Hit (-187)** — 0.714 career AVG vs Shane Baz (7 AB). Implied: 65%. - **Vinnie Pasquantino 1+ Hit (-238)** — 0.600 career AVG vs Tanner Bibee (15 AB). Implied: 70%. - **Otto Lopez 2+ Hits (+196)** — 0.667 career AVG vs Aaron Nola (6 AB). Implied: 34%. - **Aaron Judge 1+ Hit (-256)** — 0.400 career AVG vs Shane Baz (10 AB). Implied: 72%. - **Elly De La Cruz 1+ Hit (-237)** — 0.400 career AVG vs Edward Cabrera (5 AB). Implied: 70%. - **Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Hits (+150)** — 0.200 career AVG vs Nick Martinez (5 AB). Implied: 40%. - **Kyle Tucker 1+ Hit (-211)** — 0.200 career AVG vs Steven Okert (5 AB). Implied: 68%. *Lines via Draftkings. Always shop for the best number. Confirm starting pitcher before betting.* ## Related Guides - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Find More Matchups These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate. Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six. [Dinger of the Day Picks](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-4-2026) | [NRFI Picks](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-4-2026) | [Top Plays](/top-plays) *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB H2H Matchup Previews](/blog/stream/mlb-h2h-matchups) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*