# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: May 25, 2026 - Today's Best H2H Advantages > Data-driven batter vs pitcher matchup picks for today's 13-game MLB slate. Career H2H stats scored across AVG, OPS, HR rate, XBH rate, and contact quality. **Date:** 2026-05-25 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Batter vs Pitcher, H2H Matchups, MLB Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-may-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Monday, May 25, 2026** are Jeff McNeil (Score: 85 — 0.533 AVG, 1.830 OPS in 15 career AB vs Luis Castillo), Nolan Arenado (Score: 82 — 0.667 AVG, 1.834 OPS in 6 career AB vs Landen Roupp), Iván Herrera (Score: 79 — 0.500 AVG, 1.738 OPS in 6 career AB vs Jacob Misiorowski). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 5-factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - May 25, 2026 80 career matchups scored, 13 games. Here's where history favors the hitter. ## Hitters to Watch Today - **Jeff McNeil** — .533 AVG & 1.830 OPS with 3 HR in 15 AB vs. Luis Castillo | 1+ Hit (-195) - **Nolan Arenado** — .667 AVG & 1.834 OPS with 0 HR in 6 AB vs. Landen Roupp | 1+ Hit (-187) - **Iván Herrera** — .500 AVG & 1.738 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Jacob Misiorowski | 1+ Hit (-193) - **Pete Alonso** — .500 AVG & 1.667 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Shane McClanahan | 1+ Hit (-176) - **Edgar Quero** — .400 AVG & 1.400 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Zebby Matthews - **Teoscar Hernández** — .400 AVG & 1.400 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Tanner Gordon | 1+ Hit (-189) > **Yesterday's H2H matchups:** [MLB H2H Matchups - May 24](/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-may-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate | Matchup | Pitchers | Time | |---------|----------|------| | CHC @ PIT | Ben Brown vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 1:35 PM ET | | TB @ BAL | Shane McClanahan vs Kyle Bradish | 1:35 PM ET | | MIN @ CWS | Zebby Matthews vs Anthony Kay | 2:10 PM ET | | STL @ MIL | Matthew Liberatore vs Jacob Misiorowski | 2:10 PM ET | | NYY @ KC | Will Warren vs Michael Wacha | 3:40 PM ET | | CIN @ NYM | Nick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean | 4:10 PM ET | | AZ @ SF | Merrill Kelly vs Landen Roupp | 5:05 PM ET | | WSH @ CLE | Zack Littell vs Tanner Bibee | 6:10 PM ET | | PHI @ SD | Jesús Luzardo vs Randy Vásquez | 6:40 PM ET | | HOU @ TEX | Tatsuya Imai vs Kumar Rocker | 7:05 PM ET | | MIA @ TOR | Janson Junk vs Trey Yesavage | 7:07 PM ET | | COL @ LAD | Tanner Gordon vs Emmet Sheehan | 9:10 PM ET | | SEA @ ATH | Luis Castillo vs Aaron Civale | 9:40 PM ET | ## 1. Jeff McNeil (ATH) vs Luis Castillo (RHP) 0.533 AVG, 1.830 OPS in 15 career AB | Sutter Health Park | **1+ Hit (-195)** *Career: 8-for-15 · .533 · 3 HR · 5 XBH · 1.830 OPS · 2 K* History speaks plainly here: McNeil has taken Castillo deep 3 times across 15 at-bats. The matchup is the matchup. Moderate sample — a real pattern is emerging. 5 extra-base hits in 15 AB — when he connects, the ball gets out of the infield in a hurry. The 1.830 career OPS against this pitcher backs up the rest. ## 2. Nolan Arenado (AZ) vs Landen Roupp (RHP) 0.667 AVG, 1.834 OPS in 6 career AB | Oracle Park | **1+ Hit (-187)** *Career: 4-for-6 · .667 · 3 XBH · 1.834 OPS · 1 K* When OPS hits 1.834 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Arenado is 4-for-6 against Roupp with the kind of contact that drives runs. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-187). ## 3. Iván Herrera (STL) vs Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) 0.500 AVG, 1.738 OPS in 6 career AB | American Family Field | **1+ Hit (-193)** *Career: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.738 OPS · 1 K · 1 BB* Herrera's slash line against Misiorowski translates to a 1.738 OPS over 6 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-193). > Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## 4. Pete Alonso (BAL) vs Shane McClanahan (LHP) 0.500 AVG, 1.667 OPS in 6 career AB | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | **1+ Hit (-176)** *Career: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.667 OPS · 2 K* A 1.667 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare — and Alonso owns it against McClanahan across 6 at-bats. That is run-producing dominance, not noise. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-176). ## 5. Edgar Quero (CWS) vs Zebby Matthews (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 1.400 OPS in 5 career AB | Rate Field *Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.400 OPS* Quero is 2-for-5 (.400) lifetime against Matthews. He sees this pitcher well and the at-bats keep coming back as hits. Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. ## 6. Teoscar Hernández (LAD) vs Tanner Gordon (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 1.400 OPS in 5 career AB | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | **1+ Hit (-189)** *Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.400 OPS · 1 K* Hernández is 2-for-5 (.400) lifetime against Gordon. He sees this pitcher well and the at-bats keep coming back as hits. Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-189). ## 7. Kyle Karros (COL) vs Emmet Sheehan (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 1.429 OPS in 5 career AB | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | **1+ Hit (-103)** *Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.429 OPS · 2 K · 1 BB* Career batting average against Sheehan: .400 in 5 AB. Karros has the kind of pitch recognition on this arm that does not show up against the rest of the league. Tiny sample — treat as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-103). ## 8. Colson Montgomery (CWS) vs Zebby Matthews (RHP) 0.333 AVG, 1.333 OPS in 6 career AB | Rate Field | **1+ Hit (-193)** *Career: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.333 OPS · 2 K* When OPS hits 1.333 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Montgomery is 2-for-6 against Matthews with the kind of contact that drives runs. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at-bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Currently listed at 1+ Hit (-193). ## Hit Props to Consider - **Jeff McNeil 1+ Hit (-195)** — 0.533 career AVG vs Luis Castillo (15 AB). Implied: 66%. - **Nolan Arenado 1+ Hit (-187)** — 0.667 career AVG vs Landen Roupp (6 AB). Implied: 65%. - **Iván Herrera 1+ Hit (-193)** — 0.500 career AVG vs Jacob Misiorowski (6 AB). Implied: 66%. - **Pete Alonso 1+ Hit (-176)** — 0.500 career AVG vs Shane McClanahan (6 AB). Implied: 64%. - **Teoscar Hernández 1+ Hit (-189)** — 0.400 career AVG vs Tanner Gordon (5 AB). Implied: 65%. - **Kyle Karros 1+ Hit (-103)** — 0.400 career AVG vs Emmet Sheehan (5 AB). Implied: 51%. - **Colson Montgomery 1+ Hit (-193)** — 0.333 career AVG vs Zebby Matthews (6 AB). Implied: 66%. *Lines via Draftkings. Always shop for the best number. Confirm starting pitcher before betting.* ## Related Guides - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Find More Matchups These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate. Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six. [Dinger of the Day Picks](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-25-2026) | [NRFI Picks](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-25-2026) | [Top Plays](/top-plays) *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB H2H Matchup Previews](/blog/stream/mlb-h2h-matchups) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*