# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: July 9, 2026: Today's Best H2H Advantages > Data driven batter vs pitcher matchup picks for today's 13 game MLB slate. Career H2H stats scored across AVG, OPS, HR rate, XBH rate, and contact quality. **Date:** 2026-07-09 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Batter vs Pitcher, H2H Matchups, MLB Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-jul-9-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Thursday, July 9, 2026** are Nick Kurtz (Score: 95, 0.667 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 6 career AB vs Framber Valdez), Kyle Karros (Score: 69, 0.571 AVG, 1.428 OPS in 7 career AB vs Robbie Ray), Mauricio Dubón (Score: 68, 0.462 AVG, 1.346 OPS in 13 career AB vs Mitch Keller). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's five factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: July 9, 2026 104 career matchups scored, 13 games. Here's where history favors the hitter. ## Hitters to Watch Today - **Nick Kurtz**: .667 AVG & 2.000 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Framber Valdez - **Kyle Karros**: .571 AVG & 1.428 OPS with 0 HR in 7 AB vs. Robbie Ray - **Mauricio Dubón**: .462 AVG & 1.346 OPS with 1 HR in 13 AB vs. Mitch Keller - **Matt Olson**: .533 AVG & 1.363 OPS with 1 HR in 15 AB vs. Mitch Keller - **Corbin Carroll**: .333 AVG & 1.166 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Griffin Canning - **Jake Bauers**: .600 AVG & 1.550 OPS with 0 HR in 5 AB vs. Andre Pallante > **Yesterday's H2H matchups:** [MLB H2H Matchups: July 8](/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-jul-8-2026) ## Tonight's Slate | Matchup | Pitchers | Time | |---------|----------|------| | Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates | Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller | 12:35 PM ET | | Kansas City Royals at New York Mets | Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea | 1:10 PM ET | | New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays | TBD vs Drew Rasmussen | 1:10 PM ET | | Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins | Gavin Williams vs Mike Paredes | 1:40 PM ET | | Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox | Patrick Sandoval vs Anthony Kay | 2:10 PM ET | | Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles | David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers | 6:35 PM ET | | Athletics at Detroit Tigers | Jack Perkins vs Framber Valdez | 6:40 PM ET | | Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins | Bryce Miller vs TBD | 6:40 PM ET | | Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds | Jesús Luzardo vs Brady Singer | 7:10 PM ET | | Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals | TBD vs Andre Pallante | 7:45 PM ET | | Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers | Reid Detmers vs Nathan Eovaldi | 8:05 PM ET | | Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres | Merrill Kelly vs Griffin Canning | 9:40 PM ET | | Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants | Ryan Feltner vs Robbie Ray | 9:45 PM ET | ## 1. Nick Kurtz (ATH) vs Framber Valdez (LHP) 0.667 AVG, 2.000 OPS in 6 career AB | Comerica Park *Career: 4-for-6 · .667 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 2.000 OPS · 1 K* A 2.000 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare, and Kurtz owns it against Valdez across 6 at bats. That is run producing dominance, not noise. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Bottom line: Kurtz owns this matchup against Valdez. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 2. Kyle Karros (COL) vs Robbie Ray (LHP) 0.571 AVG, 1.428 OPS in 7 career AB | Oracle Park *Career: 4-for-7 · .571 · 2 XBH · 1.428 OPS · 1 K* Karros's slash line against Ray translates to a 1.428 OPS over 7 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. Verdict: give me Karros every time he steps in against Ray. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 3. Mauricio Dubón (ATL) vs Mitch Keller (RHP) 0.462 AVG, 1.346 OPS in 13 career AB | PNC Park *Career: 6-for-13 · .462 · 1 HR · 3 XBH · 1.346 OPS · 1 K · 1 BB* A 1.346 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare, and Dubón owns it against Keller across 13 at bats. That is run producing dominance, not noise. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. A home run every 13 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Only 1 strikeout in 13 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. The take is simple. History sides hard with Dubón here. I want him in my lineup tonight. > Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## 4. Matt Olson (ATL) vs Mitch Keller (RHP) 0.533 AVG, 1.363 OPS in 15 career AB | PNC Park *Career: 8-for-15 · .533 · 1 HR · 2 XBH · 1.363 OPS · 2 K* When OPS hits 1.363 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Olson is 8-for-15 against Keller with the kind of contact that drives runs. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. A home run every 15 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. The take is simple. History sides hard with Olson here. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 5. Corbin Carroll (AZ) vs Griffin Canning (RHP) 0.333 AVG, 1.166 OPS in 6 career AB | Petco Park *Career: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.166 OPS* Carroll's slash line against Canning translates to a 1.166 OPS over 6 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. When the sample says this much, you trust it. Carroll has Canning's number. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 6. Jake Bauers (MIL) vs Andre Pallante (RHP) 0.600 AVG, 1.550 OPS in 5 career AB | Busch Stadium *Career: 3-for-5 · .600 · 1 XBH · 1.550 OPS · 2 K · 3 BB* Career batting average against Pallante: .600 in 5 AB. Bauers has the kind of pitch recognition on this arm that does not show up against the rest of the league. Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. Bottom line: Bauers owns this matchup against Pallante. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 7. Gavin Sheets (SD) vs Merrill Kelly (RHP) 0.375 AVG, 1.194 OPS in 8 career AB | Petco Park *Career: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.194 OPS · 1 BB* Sheets's slash line against Kelly translates to a 1.194 OPS over 8 AB. That is the kind of split that turns a prop into a play. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 8 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Only 0 strikeouts in 8 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. The take is simple. History sides hard with Sheets here. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 8. Salvador Perez (KC) vs Sean Manaea (LHP) 0.333 AVG, 1.201 OPS in 18 career AB | Citi Field *Career: 6-for-18 · .333 · 3 HR · 3 XBH · 1.201 OPS · 4 K* Perez owns Manaea when it comes to power: 3 home runs in 18 career at bats. That is not a stat to ignore. It is the case for tonight. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. 3 extra base hits in 18 AB. When he connects, the ball gets out of the infield in a hurry. The 1.201 career OPS against this pitcher backs up the rest. Bottom line: Perez owns this matchup against Manaea. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## Related Guides - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Find More Matchups These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate. Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six. [Dinger of the Day Picks](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-9-2026) | [NRFI Picks](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-9-2026) | [Top Plays](/top-plays) *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB H2H Matchup Previews](/blog/stream/mlb-h2h-matchups) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*