# MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: July 21, 2026 > Who owns their matchup tonight? 15 games analyzed through career H2H batting average, OPS, and strikeout rate. Ryan O'Hearn tops the board. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-07-21 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Batter vs Pitcher, H2H Matchups, MLB Props, Daily Picks, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-jul-21-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB batter vs pitcher matchup picks for Tuesday, July 21, 2026** are Ryan O'Hearn (Score: 85, 0.600 AVG, 1.800 OPS in 5 career AB vs Will Warren), Shohei Ohtani (Score: 83, 0.667 AVG, 1.945 OPS in 6 career AB vs Zack Wheeler), Andrés Giménez (Score: 80, 0.600 AVG, 1.800 OPS in 5 career AB vs Drew Rasmussen). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's five factor career H2H scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups: July 21, 2026 67 career matchups scored, 15 games. Here's where history favors the hitter. ## Hitters to Watch Today - **Ryan O'Hearn**: .600 AVG & 1.800 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Will Warren - **Shohei Ohtani**: .667 AVG & 1.945 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Zack Wheeler - **Andrés Giménez**: .600 AVG & 1.800 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Drew Rasmussen - **Connor Wong**: .400 AVG & 1.571 OPS with 1 HR in 5 AB vs. Kyle Bradish - **Austin Riley**: .556 AVG & 1.445 OPS with 1 HR in 9 AB vs. Walker Buehler - **Luis Rengifo**: .333 AVG & 1.166 OPS with 1 HR in 6 AB vs. Reynaldo López > **Yesterday's H2H matchups:** [MLB H2H Matchups: July 20](/blog/mlb-h2h-matchups-jul-20-2026) ## Tonight's Slate | Matchup | Pitchers | Time | |---------|----------|------| | Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians | Kendry Rojas vs Parker Messick | 6:40 PM ET | | Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies | Justin Wrobleski vs Zack Wheeler | 6:40 PM ET | | Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees | Bubba Chandler vs Will Warren | 7:05 PM ET | | Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays | Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman | 7:07 PM ET | | Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox | Kyle Bradish vs Ranger Suarez | 7:10 PM ET | | San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves | Walker Buehler vs Reynaldo López | 7:15 PM ET | | San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals | Tyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila | 7:40 PM ET | | New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers | Zac Thornton vs Brandon Sproat | 7:40 PM ET | | Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs | Framber Valdez vs David Peterson | 8:05 PM ET | | Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers | Noah Schultz vs Kumar Rocker | 8:05 PM ET | | Miami Marlins at Houston Astros | Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai | 8:10 PM ET | | Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies | Miles Mikolas vs Michael Lorenzen | 8:40 PM ET | | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels | Matthew Liberatore vs Walbert Ureña | 9:38 PM ET | | Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks | Jack Perkins vs Kohl Drake | 9:40 PM ET | | Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners | Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo | 9:40 PM ET | ## 1. Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) vs Will Warren (RHP) 0.600 AVG, 1.800 OPS in 5 career AB | Yankee Stadium *Career: 3-for-5 · .600 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.800 OPS · 1 K* .600 is a real number when it holds up over 5 at bats. O'Hearn sees something against Warren that other hitters do not. Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Yankee Stadium, with its short right field porch. The take is simple. History sides hard with O'Hearn here. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 2. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) 0.667 AVG, 1.945 OPS in 6 career AB | Citizens Bank Park *Career: 4-for-6 · .667 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.945 OPS · 2 K · 3 BB* When OPS hits 1.945 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Ohtani is 4-for-6 against Wheeler with the kind of contact that drives runs. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Citizens Bank Park, a plus environment for hitters. Bottom line: Ohtani owns this matchup against Wheeler. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 3. Andrés Giménez (TOR) vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP) 0.600 AVG, 1.800 OPS in 5 career AB | Rogers Centre *Career: 3-for-5 · .600 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.800 OPS · 2 K* .600 is a real number when it holds up over 5 at bats. Giménez sees something against Rasmussen that other hitters do not. Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. The take is simple. History sides hard with Giménez here. I want him in my lineup tonight. > Look up any pitcher vs batter career history on the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## 4. Connor Wong (BOS) vs Kyle Bradish (RHP) 0.400 AVG, 1.571 OPS in 5 career AB | Fenway Park *Career: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.571 OPS · 1 K · 2 BB* .400 is a real number when it holds up over 5 at bats. Wong sees something against Bradish that other hitters do not. Tiny sample, so treat it as directional, not definitive. A home run every 5 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Played at Fenway Park, where the Green Monster inflates extra base hit rates. Bottom line: Wong owns this matchup against Bradish. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 5. Austin Riley (ATL) vs Walker Buehler (RHP) 0.556 AVG, 1.445 OPS in 9 career AB | Truist Park *Career: 5-for-9 · .556 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.445 OPS · 2 K* A 1.445 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare, and Riley owns it against Buehler across 9 at bats. That is run producing dominance, not noise. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 9 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. Verdict: give me Riley every time he steps in against Buehler. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 6. Luis Rengifo (SD) vs Reynaldo López (RHP) 0.333 AVG, 1.166 OPS in 6 career AB | Truist Park *Career: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.166 OPS* A 1.166 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare, and Rengifo owns it against López across 6 at bats. That is run producing dominance, not noise. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. The take is simple. History sides hard with Rengifo here. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 7. Salvador Perez (KC) vs Tyler Mahle (RHP) 0.333 AVG, 1.166 OPS in 6 career AB | Kauffman Stadium *Career: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 XBH · 1.166 OPS* A 1.166 career OPS against a single pitcher is rare, and Perez owns it against Mahle across 6 at bats. That is run producing dominance, not noise. Small sample, but the dominance is notable. A home run every 6 at bats in this matchup is well above league pace. The take is simple. History sides hard with Perez here. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## 8. Chandler Simpson (TB) vs Kevin Gausman (RHP) 0.583 AVG, 1.333 OPS in 12 career AB | Rogers Centre *Career: 7-for-12 · .583 · 2 XBH · 1.333 OPS · 1 K* When OPS hits 1.333 in a career H2H sample, you take it seriously. Simpson is 7-for-12 against Gausman with the kind of contact that drives runs. Moderate sample, and a real pattern is emerging. Only 1 strikeout in 12 AB shows the eye is dialed in here. When the sample says this much, you trust it. Simpson has Gausman's number. I want him in my lineup tonight. ## Related Guides - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Find More Matchups These are today's top career advantages, but every game has matchups worth looking into. Check out the [Hitter vs Pitcher dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) to search any batter vs pitcher career history, view full lineup matchups, and explore Statcast data for every game on the slate. Always confirm lineups and starting pitchers before placing any bets. A different arm on the mound changes the entire matchup profile, and career sample size matters. Matchups with 10 or more at bats carry significantly more weight than those with only five or six. [Dinger of the Day Picks](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-21-2026) | [NRFI Picks](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-jul-21-2026) | [Top Plays](/top-plays) *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB H2H Matchup Previews](/blog/stream/mlb-h2h-matchups) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*