Not every hitter who should be hitting home runs is hitting home runs. Baseball is random in the short term, and a barrel at 108 mph can be a warning track flyout one day and a 420 foot bomb the next.
These 3 batters have the Statcast profile of power hitters, with elite barrel rate, exit velocity, and expected slugging, but their actual HR totals haven't caught up. With favorable matchups on today's slate, they're the top regression candidates.
1. Thomas Saggese (STL)
12.7% barrel · 100.3 mph EV · 0.436 xSLG · 27.0% FB · 4 HR · 0.333 platoon SLG · vs Tanner Gordon (RHP) · 1.46 opp HR/9 (exploitable)
Thomas Saggese hits the ball as hard as anyone, averaging 100.3 mph off the bat, and that raw exit velocity is the engine behind home run power. Yet he sits at just 4 home runs, a total that lags well behind the batted ball quality. The one limiter is launch, a 27% fly ball rate, so any uptick in loft and the power plays up fast. And Tanner Gordon is the right arm to face, giving up 1.46 home runs per nine. The regression is coming, and I like Saggese to break through tonight.
2. Nelson Velázquez (HOU)
13.3% barrel · 103.1 mph EV · 0.492 xSLG · 36.7% FB · 5 HR · 0.470 platoon SLG · vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) · 0.61 opp HR/9
Nelson Velázquez hits the ball as hard as anyone, averaging 103.1 mph off the bat, and that raw exit velocity is the engine behind home run power. Yet the 5 home runs he has so far still understate what this batted ball profile should produce. Velázquez is due, and tonight is a live spot for it.
3. Brian Serven (ATH)
11.4% barrel · 99.7 mph EV · 0.438 xSLG · 29.5% FB · 5 HR · 0.593 platoon SLG · vs Bryan Woo (RHP) · 1.78 opp HR/9 (exploitable)
Brian Serven hits the ball as hard as anyone, averaging 99.7 mph off the bat, and that raw exit velocity is the engine behind home run power. Yet the 5 home runs he has so far still understate what this batted ball profile should produce. The one limiter is launch, a 30% fly ball rate, so any uptick in loft and the power plays up fast. The handedness matchup tilts his way too, a .593 slugging mark against RHP. Serven is my top due for HR call on the slate.
How We Find "Due" Hitters
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
The key stats that predict HR regression:
- Barrel %: the best single predictor of home runs. Barrels are batted balls with the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle.
- Exit Velocity: how hard they hit the ball. 95 mph and up is elite.
- xSLG: expected slugging based on batted ball quality, independent of luck.
- Fly Ball %: ground balls can't be home runs. A higher FB% means more HR opportunities.
When a hitter has elite numbers in all four and fewer HRs than expected, positive regression is likely.
Research These Players
- Hitter vs Pitcher: career H2H stats for every batter vs today's opposing pitcher
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix: per pitch breakdown with barrel rate, EV, and ISO by pitch type
- Best Bats: 10 factor composite scoring model for today's top prop picks
- Weather: wind and temperature conditions at every ballpark
Related Guides
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Due for HR
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides