Not every hitter who should be hitting home runs is hitting home runs. Baseball is random in the short term, and a barrel at 108 mph can be a warning track flyout one day and a 420 foot bomb the next.
These 3 batters have the Statcast profile of power hitters, with elite barrel rate, exit velocity, and expected slugging, but their actual HR totals haven't caught up. With favorable matchups on today's slate, they're the top regression candidates.
1. Nelson Velázquez (HOU)
14.3% barrel · 103.3 mph EV · 0.509 xSLG · 38.1% FB · 6 HR · 0.449 platoon SLG · vs Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) · 1.00 opp HR/9
Nelson Velázquez squares the ball up as well as almost anyone, a 14.3% barrel rate that sits in the league's top tier. Yet the 6 home runs he has so far still understate what this batted ball profile should produce. He puts the ball in the air on 38% of contact, exactly the launch profile that turns hard contact into home runs. Velázquez is my top due for HR call on the slate.
2. Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT)
13.8% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.481 xSLG · 40.0% FB · 8 HR · 0.500 platoon SLG · vs Logan Henderson (RHP) · 1.12 opp HR/9
Rafael Flores Jr. hits the ball as hard as anyone, averaging 101.8 mph off the bat, and that raw exit velocity is the engine behind home run power. Yet the 8 home runs he has so far still understate what this batted ball profile should produce. He puts the ball in the air on 40% of contact, exactly the launch profile that turns hard contact into home runs. The handedness matchup tilts his way too, a .500 slugging mark against RHP. Jr. is due, and tonight is a live spot for it.
3. Spencer Jones (NYY)
15.6% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.449 xSLG · 35.6% FB · 9 HR · 0.382 platoon SLG · vs Zebby Matthews (RHP) · 1.99 opp HR/9 (exploitable)
The contact quality is the story with Spencer Jones. A 15.6% barrel rate is elite, and elite barrels become home runs in bunches. Yet the 9 home runs he has so far still understate what this batted ball profile should produce. And Zebby Matthews is the right arm to face, giving up 1.99 home runs per nine. The regression is coming, and I like Jones to break through tonight.
How We Find "Due" Hitters
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
The key stats that predict HR regression:
- Barrel %: the best single predictor of home runs. Barrels are batted balls with the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle.
- Exit Velocity: how hard they hit the ball. 95 mph and up is elite.
- xSLG: expected slugging based on batted ball quality, independent of luck.
- Fly Ball %: ground balls can't be home runs. A higher FB% means more HR opportunities.
When a hitter has elite numbers in all four and fewer HRs than expected, positive regression is likely.
Research These Players
- Hitter vs Pitcher: career H2H stats for every batter vs today's opposing pitcher
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix: per pitch breakdown with barrel rate, EV, and ISO by pitch type
- Best Bats: 10 factor composite scoring model for today's top prop picks
- Weather: wind and temperature conditions at every ballpark
Related Guides
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Due for HR
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides