# MLB Due for a Homer — May 6, 2026

> These 3 hitters have elite Statcast power numbers but fewer HRs than expected. With favorable matchups today, they're the most likely regression candidates on the slate.

**Date:** 2026-05-06  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Runs, Due for HR, Statcast, Daily Picks  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-due-for-hr-may-6-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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Not every hitter who *should* be hitting home runs *is* hitting home runs. Baseball is random in the short term — a barrel at 108 mph can be a warning-track flyout one day and a 420-foot bomb the next.

These 3 batters have the Statcast profile of power hitters — elite barrel rate, exit velocity, and expected slugging — but their actual HR totals haven't caught up. With favorable matchups on today's slate, they're the top regression candidates.

## 1. Byron Buxton (MIN)

*18.4% barrel · 100.5 mph EV · 0.455 xSLG · 37.8% FB · 10 HR · 0.659 platoon SLG · vs Miles Mikolas (RHP) · 2.66 opp HR/9 (exploitable)*

When Byron Buxton connects, the ball travels. 18.4% barrel rate is doing real damage on the rare swings he's making count. Fly ball rate is moderate (38%) — there's some ground ball drag on his HR pace, but the contact quality compensates. 10 HR through the early going understates what this batted-ball profile should produce.

## 2. Ben Rice (NYY)

*20.5% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.643 xSLG · 28.2% FB · 12 HR · 0.718 platoon SLG · vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) · 2.07 opp HR/9 (exploitable)*

When Ben Rice connects, the ball travels. 20.5% barrel rate is doing real damage on the rare swings he's making count. 28% fly ball rate is low — he'd benefit from getting more loft. The raw contact quality is here regardless. 12 HR through the early going understates what this batted-ball profile should produce.

## 3. Aaron Judge (NYY)

*27.7% barrel · 105.6 mph EV · 0.696 xSLG · 30.1% FB · 14 HR · 0.628 platoon SLG · vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) · 2.07 opp HR/9 (exploitable)*

When Aaron Judge connects, the ball travels. 27.7% barrel rate is doing real damage on the rare swings he's making count. Fly ball rate is moderate (30%) — there's some ground ball drag on his HR pace, but the contact quality compensates. 14 on the season is fine, but the Statcast inputs argue for more.

## How We Find "Due" Hitters

Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

The key stats that predict HR regression:
- **Barrel %** — the best single predictor of home runs. Barrels are batted balls with the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle.
- **Exit Velocity** — how hard they hit the ball. 95+ mph is elite.
- **xSLG** — expected slugging based on batted ball quality, independent of luck.
- **Fly Ball %** — ground balls can't be home runs. Higher FB% = more HR opportunities.

When a hitter has elite numbers in all four and fewer HRs than expected, regression (in the positive direction) is likely.

## Research These Players

- [Hitter vs Pitcher](/mlb/hitter-vs-pitcher) — career H2H stats for every batter vs today's opposing pitcher
- [Hitter vs Pitch Mix](/mlb/hitting-stats) — per-pitch breakdown with barrel rate, EV, and ISO by pitch type
- [Best Bats](/mlb/best-bats) — 10-factor composite scoring model for today's top prop picks
- [Weather](/mlb/weather) — wind and temperature conditions at every ballpark

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)


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