# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 9, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Aaron Judge on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-09 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-9-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 9, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 69, Aaron Judge rates a 69.1 dinger composite score against Tomoyuki Sugano today), Coby Mayo (Score: 69, Coby Mayo rates a 68.9 dinger composite score against Foster Griffin today), Riley Greene (Score: 61, Riley Greene rates a 60.9 dinger composite score against Zebby Matthews today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 9, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 8](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-8-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIN at DET (Zebby Matthews vs Keider Montero), 1:10 PM ET - TOR at ATH (TBD vs TBD), 3:05 PM ET - STL at SF (Andre Pallante vs Blade Tidwell), 3:45 PM ET - WSH at SD (Jackson Kent vs Walker Buehler), 4:10 PM ET - TEX at SEA (Cal Quantrill vs Kade Anderson), 4:10 PM ET - CLE at BAL (Foster Griffin vs Shane Baz), 6:35 PM ET - HOU at PHI (Hunter Brown vs Cristopher Sánchez), 6:40 PM ET - NYM at MIA (Robert Stock vs Janson Junk), 6:40 PM ET - LAA at BOS (Ryan Johnson vs Jake Bennett), 6:45 PM ET - COL at NYY (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Will Warren), 7:05 PM ET - TB at ATL (Griffin Jax vs Reynaldo López), 7:15 PM ET - AZ at KC (TBD vs Daniel Lynch IV), 7:40 PM ET - PIT at CWS (TBD vs Davis Martin), 7:40 PM ET - CHC at MIL (Kevin Gausman vs Logan Henderson), 7:40 PM ET - CIN at LAD (Rhett Lowder vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 10:10 PM ET ## Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 17 HR · 21.7% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.600 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.39* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.738 SLG). Aaron Judge has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Judge squares the ball up at 21.7%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 91.7 mph fastball gives Judge something to drive. I am backing Judge to clear the fences. ## Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles vs Foster Griffin (LHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 21 HR · 13.0% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.454 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.94* Foster Griffin throws his sweeper 14% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.500 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Coby Mayo should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 13.0% barrel rate, which is above average territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Foster Griffin's 89.8 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Mayo is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers vs Zebby Matthews (RHP) *Comerica Park · DET vs MIN · 3 HR in last 7 games* Riley Greene has been on a tear, going deep 3 times over his last 7 games — that kind of recent form is the signal the dinger model weights most heavily in the final weeks of the season. Zebby Matthews has been hittable, and Greene has the bat speed to punish a fastball-heavy arm. Comerica Park plays fair and the Tigers lineup is getting on base. Greene in the middle of that order is a live HR threat tonight. Back the hot bat. ## Honorable Mentions - **Spencer Jones** (NYY) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Walker Buehler: 20.8% barrel rate. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 14.4% barrel rate. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Foster Griffin: 17.1% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Logan Henderson: strong barrel profile (13.5%, 102.3 mph EV) but CHC @ MIL is our #3 NRFI pick tonight — conflicting signals, fading for now. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-9-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*