Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, September 8, 2026 are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 69.3 dinger composite score against Andrew Painter today), Riley Greene (Score: 67, Riley Greene rates a 66.8 dinger composite score against Dean Kremer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 8, 2026
357 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 7
Tonight's Slate
- CLE at BAL (Tanner Bibee vs Brandon Young), 6:35 PM ET
- MIN at DET (Dean Kremer vs Drew Anderson), 6:40 PM ET
- HOU at PHI (Hayden Wesneski vs Andrew Painter), 6:40 PM ET
- NYM at MIA (Sean Manaea vs Sandy Alcantara), 6:40 PM ET
- LAA at BOS (Reid Detmers vs Patrick Sandoval), 6:45 PM ET
- COL at NYY (Gabriel Hughes vs Cam Schlittler), 7:05 PM ET
- TB at ATL (Freddy Peralta vs AJ Smith-Shawver), 7:15 PM ET
- AZ at KC (TBD vs Michael Wacha), 7:40 PM ET
- PIT at CWS (Bubba Chandler vs Sean Burke), 7:40 PM ET
- CHC at MIL (David Peterson vs Jacob Misiorowski), 7:40 PM ET
- WSH at SD (Will Dion vs Casey Mize), 9:40 PM ET
- TEX at SEA (Cody Bradford vs Bryce Miller), 9:40 PM ET
- TOR at ATH (José Soriano vs Jack Perkins), 9:40 PM ET
- STL at SF (Quinn Mathews vs Landen Roupp), 9:45 PM ET
- CIN at LAD (Nick Lodolo vs Tarik Skubal), 10:10 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Andrew Painter (RHP)
Citizens Bank Park · 38 HR · 16.1% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.647 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.87
Top play tonight. Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Andrew Painter leans on a 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .574 against it.
At 16.1%, Alvarez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers vs Dean Kremer (RHP)
Comerica Park · 18 HR · 15.2% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.497 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.77
Dean Kremer throws his sinker 15% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.645 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Riley Greene should be sitting on.
Greene squares the ball up at 15.2%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. An 91.0 mph fastball gives Greene something to drive. I am backing Greene to clear the fences.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Honorable Mentions
- James Wood (WSH) vs Casey Mize: 20.7% barrel, 106.1 mph EV — strong power profile, but WSH @ SD is tonight's top NRFI pick; conflicting signals, confirm closer to first pitch.
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) vs Dean Kremer: 17.7% barrel rate.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Nick Lodolo: 15.8% barrel rate.
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs Gabriel Hughes: 14.4% barrel rate.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs Tarik Skubal: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) vs Sean Manaea: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides