Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, September 7, 2026 are Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Score: 65, Christian Encarnacion-Strand rates a 64.8 dinger composite score against Joey Cantillo today), James Wood (Score: 65, James Wood rates a 64.7 dinger composite score against Randy Vásquez today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 63, Kyle Schwarber rates a 63.2 dinger composite score against Bryce Elder today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 7, 2026
11 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 6
Tonight's Slate
- ATL at PHI (Bryce Elder vs Jesús Luzardo), 1:05 PM ET
- NYM at MIA (Jonah Tong vs Eury Pérez), 1:10 PM ET
- LAA at BOS (Grayson Rodriguez vs Patrick Sandoval), 1:35 PM ET
- CLE at BAL (Joey Cantillo vs Trevor Rogers), 1:35 PM ET
- AZ at KC (TBD vs TBD), 2:10 PM ET
- CHC at MIL (Matthew Boyd vs Robert Gasser), 2:10 PM ET
- MIN at DET (TBD vs Troy Melton), 3:10 PM ET
- WSH at SD (Will Dion vs Randy Vásquez), 5:10 PM ET
- STL at SF (TBD vs Logan Webb), 8:10 PM ET
- CIN at LAD (Chase Burns vs TBD), 9:10 PM ET
- TOR at ATH (Dylan Cease vs Jacob Lopez), 10:05 PM ET
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Baltimore Orioles vs Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 8 HR · 15.8% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.512 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.85
Top play tonight. Joey Cantillo throws his 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.500 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Christian Encarnacion-Strand should be sitting on.
His 15.8% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. An 91.3 mph fastball gives Encarnacion-Strand something to drive. Encarnacion-Strand to go deep is the play tonight.
James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Randy Vásquez (RHP)
Petco Park · 30 HR · 20.9% barrel · 106.1 mph EV · 0.580 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.64
Randy Vásquez throws his cutter 24% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.632 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch James Wood should be sitting on.
At 20.9%, Wood carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. One reason to size down: Randy Vásquez has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.64 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Wood is my HR lean in this spot.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Bryce Elder (RHP)
Citizens Bank Park · 41 HR · 16.9% barrel · 103.5 mph EV · 0.495 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.50
Bryce Elder throws his cutter 15% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.506 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Kyle Schwarber should be sitting on.
Schwarber squares the ball up at 16.9%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 90.9 mph fastball gives Schwarber something to drive. I am backing Schwarber to clear the fences.
Honorable Mentions
- Juan Soto (NYM) vs Eury Pérez: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) vs Joey Cantillo: 12.4% barrel rate.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs Robert Gasser: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Mickey Gasper (BOS) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) vs Bryce Elder: Bryce Elder giving up 1.50 HR/9.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides