Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 6, 2026 are Elly De La Cruz (Score: 63, Elly De La Cruz rates a 63.3 dinger composite score against Kyle Harrison today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 63, Yordan Alvarez rates a 63.2 dinger composite score against Eduardo Rodriguez today), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Score: 63, Christian Encarnacion-Strand rates a 62.5 dinger composite score against Payton Tolle today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 6, 2026
Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 360 candidates, 15 games, and here are the plays.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 5
Tonight's Slate
- MIL at CIN (Kyle Harrison vs Brady Singer), 12:10 PM ET
- ATL at PHI (Tyler Mahle vs Aaron Nola), 1:10 PM ET
- BOS at BAL (Payton Tolle vs Kyle Bradish), 1:35 PM ET
- LAA at PIT (Walbert Ureña vs Paul Skenes), 1:35 PM ET
- DET at CLE (Jackson Jobe vs Gavin Williams), 1:40 PM ET
- SF at NYM (Logan Webb vs Christian Scott), 1:40 PM ET
- CHC at MIA (Matthew Boyd vs Tyler Phillips), 1:40 PM ET
- AZ at HOU (Eduardo Rodriguez vs Peter Lambert), 2:10 PM ET
- TOR at KC (Spencer Arrighetti vs Randy Dobnak), 2:10 PM ET
- TB at TEX (Ian Seymour vs MacKenzie Gore), 2:35 PM ET
- STL at COL (Kyle Leahy vs Tanner Gordon), 3:10 PM ET
- ATH at SEA (Gage Jump vs Bryan Woo), 4:10 PM ET
- NYY at SD (Gerrit Cole vs Michael King), 4:10 PM ET
- MIN at CWS (Bailey Ober vs Sean Burke), 6:20 PM ET
- WSH at LAD (Andrew Alvarez vs TBD), 10:10 PM ET
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Great American Ball Park · 21 HR · 14.1% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.472 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.59
Top play tonight. Elly De La Cruz's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Kyle Harrison leans on a 4-seam fastball 59% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .464 against it.
At 14.1%, Cruz carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. A .480 stretch over 7 games says the timing is sharp. Cruz is my HR lean in this spot.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)
Daikin Park · 37 HR · 16.5% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.654 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.61
Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Eduardo Rodriguez leans on a cutter 13% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .468 against it.
Underneath the matchup is a 16.5% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Eduardo Rodriguez's 91.3 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. One reason to size down: Eduardo Rodriguez has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.61 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Baltimore Orioles vs Payton Tolle (LHP)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 8 HR · 16.8% barrel · 102.2 mph EV · 0.520 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.09
Payton Tolle throws his sinker 23% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.464 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Christian Encarnacion-Strand should be sitting on.
The barrel rate (16.8%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. I am backing Encarnacion-Strand to clear the fences.
Honorable Mentions
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs Tyler Phillips: 6 HR in his last 7 games.
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) vs Gavin Williams: 19.3% barrel rate.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) vs Payton Tolle: 12.6% barrel rate.
- Joshua Báez (STL) vs Tanner Gordon: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Justin Foscue (TEX) vs Ian Seymour: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides