# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 5, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Esmerlyn Valdez on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-05 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-5-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 68, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 68.3 dinger composite score against Yusei Kikuchi today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68, Yordan Alvarez rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Brandon Pfaadt today), Spencer Jones (Score: 66, Spencer Jones rates a 66.4 dinger composite score against Robbie Ray today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 5, 2026 372 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 4](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-4-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF at NYM (Anthony Molina vs Zac Thornton), 4:10 PM ET - CHC at MIA (Javier Assad vs Ryan Gusto), 4:10 PM ET - ATL at PHI (Martín Pérez vs Zack Wheeler), 6:05 PM ET - DET at CLE (Framber Valdez vs Parker Messick), 6:10 PM ET - LAA at PIT (Yusei Kikuchi vs Braxton Ashcraft), 6:40 PM ET - MIL at CIN (Dustin May vs Andrew Abbott), 6:40 PM ET - BOS at BAL (Sonny Gray vs Chris Bassitt), 7:05 PM ET - TB at TEX (Drew Rasmussen vs Jacob deGrom), 7:05 PM ET - TOR at KC (Max Scherzer vs Seth Lugo), 7:10 PM ET - MIN at CWS (Taj Bradley vs Anthony Kay), 7:10 PM ET - AZ at HOU (Brandon Pfaadt vs Ethan Pecko), 7:15 PM ET - NYY at SD (Carlos Rodón vs Robbie Ray), 7:15 PM ET - STL at COL (Matthew Liberatore vs Mason Adams), 8:10 PM ET - WSH at LAD (Cade Cavalli vs Tyler Glasnow), 9:10 PM ET - ATH at SEA (Jeffrey Springs vs George Kirby), 9:40 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) *PNC Park · 16 HR · 19.8% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.433 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.08* **Top play tonight.** Yusei Kikuchi throws his slider 23% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.660 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Esmerlyn Valdez should be sitting on. At 19.8%, Valdez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Valdez to go deep is the play tonight. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) *Daikin Park · 37 HR · 16.5% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.654 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.37* Lock in on the matchup math: 17% of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches are his changeup, and hitters are punishing it (.493 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (16.5%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Robbie Ray (LHP) *Petco Park · 9 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.452 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.36* Lock in on the matchup math: 33% of Robbie Ray's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.480 SLG). Spencer Jones has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Underneath the matchup is a 15.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Jones is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Anthony Molina: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 17.2% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Ryan Gusto: 6 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Matthew Liberatore: 16.1% barrel rate. - **Joshua Báez** (STL) vs Mason Adams: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-5-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*