Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026 are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 68, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 68.3 dinger composite score against Yusei Kikuchi today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68, Yordan Alvarez rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Brandon Pfaadt today), Spencer Jones (Score: 66, Spencer Jones rates a 66.4 dinger composite score against Robbie Ray today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 5, 2026
372 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 4
Tonight's Slate
- SF at NYM (Anthony Molina vs Zac Thornton), 4:10 PM ET
- CHC at MIA (Javier Assad vs Ryan Gusto), 4:10 PM ET
- ATL at PHI (Martín Pérez vs Zack Wheeler), 6:05 PM ET
- DET at CLE (Framber Valdez vs Parker Messick), 6:10 PM ET
- LAA at PIT (Yusei Kikuchi vs Braxton Ashcraft), 6:40 PM ET
- MIL at CIN (Dustin May vs Andrew Abbott), 6:40 PM ET
- BOS at BAL (Sonny Gray vs Chris Bassitt), 7:05 PM ET
- TB at TEX (Drew Rasmussen vs Jacob deGrom), 7:05 PM ET
- TOR at KC (Max Scherzer vs Seth Lugo), 7:10 PM ET
- MIN at CWS (Taj Bradley vs Anthony Kay), 7:10 PM ET
- AZ at HOU (Brandon Pfaadt vs Ethan Pecko), 7:15 PM ET
- NYY at SD (Carlos Rodón vs Robbie Ray), 7:15 PM ET
- STL at COL (Matthew Liberatore vs Mason Adams), 8:10 PM ET
- WSH at LAD (Cade Cavalli vs Tyler Glasnow), 9:10 PM ET
- ATH at SEA (Jeffrey Springs vs George Kirby), 9:40 PM ET
Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)
PNC Park · 16 HR · 19.8% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.433 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.08
Top play tonight. Yusei Kikuchi throws his slider 23% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.660 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Esmerlyn Valdez should be sitting on.
At 19.8%, Valdez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Valdez to go deep is the play tonight.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
Daikin Park · 37 HR · 16.5% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.654 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.37
Lock in on the matchup math: 17% of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches are his changeup, and hitters are punishing it (.493 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
The barrel rate (16.5%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Robbie Ray (LHP)
Petco Park · 9 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.452 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.36
Lock in on the matchup math: 33% of Robbie Ray's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.480 SLG). Spencer Jones has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
Underneath the matchup is a 15.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Jones is my HR lean in this spot.
Honorable Mentions
- Juan Soto (NYM) vs Anthony Molina: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 17.2% barrel rate.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs Ryan Gusto: 6 HR in his last 7 games.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) vs Matthew Liberatore: 16.1% barrel rate.
- Joshua Báez (STL) vs Mason Adams: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides