# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 4, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for September 4, 2026. Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 16 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-09-04 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 4, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.7 dinger composite score against Merrill Kelly today), Coby Mayo (Score: 65, Coby Mayo rates a 64.9 dinger composite score against Ranger Suarez today), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Score: 64, Christian Encarnacion-Strand rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Ranger Suarez today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 4, 2026 A slate of 16 games and 336 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 3](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-3-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - DET at CLE (Keider Montero vs Foster Griffin), 2:10 PM ET - DET at CLE (Andrew Sears vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET - MIL at CIN (Shane Drohan vs Rhett Lowder), 6:10 PM ET - ATL at PHI (Chris Sale vs Cristopher Sánchez), 6:40 PM ET - LAA at PIT (Ryan Johnson vs Jared Jones), 6:45 PM ET - BOS at BAL (Ranger Suarez vs Shane Baz), 7:05 PM ET - SF at NYM (Matt Wilkinson vs Nolan McLean), 7:10 PM ET - CHC at MIA (Shota Imanaga vs Janson Junk), 7:10 PM ET - MIN at CWS (Zebby Matthews vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET - TB at TEX (Nick Martinez vs Kumar Rocker), 8:05 PM ET - AZ at HOU (Merrill Kelly vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - TOR at KC (Jameson Taillon vs Daniel Lynch IV), 8:10 PM ET - STL at COL (Kyle Leahy vs Ryan Feltner), 8:40 PM ET - NYY at SD (Max Fried vs Walker Buehler), 9:40 PM ET - WSH at LAD (Jackson Kent vs Blake Snell), 10:10 PM ET - ATH at SEA (J.T. Ginn vs Logan Gilbert), 10:10 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Merrill Kelly (RHP) *Daikin Park · 37 HR · 16.5% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.656 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.22* **Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Merrill Kelly leans on a cutter 13% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .688 against it. His 16.5% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. An 91.8 mph fastball gives Alvarez something to drive. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. ## Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles vs Ranger Suarez (LHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 19 HR · 12.7% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.447 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.82* Platoon math wins more dinger props than people realize. Coby Mayo slugs .760 against left handers with 15 HR in that split, and tonight he gets Ranger Suarez. The barrel rate (12.7%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Ranger Suarez averages just 90.0 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Mayo to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Baltimore Orioles vs Ranger Suarez (LHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7 HR · 17.2% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.525 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.82* Platoon math wins more dinger props than people realize. Christian Encarnacion-Strand slugs .689 against left handers with 5 HR in that split, and tonight he gets Ranger Suarez. Encarnacion-Strand squares the ball up at 17.2%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 90.0 mph fastball gives Encarnacion-Strand something to drive. Take Encarnacion-Strand to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Joshua Báez** (STL) vs Ryan Feltner: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Carter Jensen** (KC) vs Jameson Taillon: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Janson Junk: 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jac Caglianone** (KC) vs Jameson Taillon: 14.0% barrel rate. - **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Ryan Johnson: 17.2% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-4-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*