# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 30, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 4 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Ben Rice on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-30 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-30-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 30, 2026** are Ben Rice (Score: 75, Ben Rice rates a 74.7 dinger composite score against Sonny Gray today), Spencer Jones (Score: 74, Spencer Jones rates a 74.2 dinger composite score against Sonny Gray today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 71, Kyle Schwarber rates a 71.3 dinger composite score against Tyler Mahle today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 30, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 4 games. 50 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** MLB HR Picks for September 29 ## Tonight's Slate - PHI at ATL (Cristopher Sánchez vs Tyler Mahle), 2:00 PM ET - CWS at HOU (TBD vs TBD), 5:00 PM ET - BOS at NYY (Sonny Gray vs Max Fried), 8:00 PM ET - CHC at SD (TBD vs TBD), 10:00 PM ET ## Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Sonny Gray (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 41 HR · 14.3% barrel · 101.7 mph EV · 0.511 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.71* **Top play tonight.** The reason Ben Rice jumps off the board: Sonny Gray can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.567 against this season. 16% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Ben Rice is going to see it. Rice squares the ball up at 14.3%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Rice has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. An 90.6 mph fastball gives Rice something to drive. That said, Sonny Gray's 0.71 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Rice to leave the yard tonight. ## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Sonny Gray (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 11 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.455 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.71* Sonny Gray throws his curveball 16% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.567 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Spencer Jones should be sitting on. His 15.9% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. An 90.6 mph fastball gives Jones something to drive. One reason to size down: Sonny Gray has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.71 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Jones is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Tyler Mahle (RHP) *Truist Park · 45 HR · 15.6% barrel · 103.5 mph EV · 0.487 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.32* Kyle Schwarber's elite 15.6% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) is one of the rarest profiles in the league, when he squares one up, it leaves at 103.5 mph on average. Drop that into Truist Park against Tyler Mahle and the math works. Tyler Mahle's 91.6 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Take Schwarber to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 14.2% barrel rate. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Sonny Gray: 12.2% barrel rate. - **Ronald Acuña Jr.** (ATL) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Tyler Mahle: 29 on the season. - **Drake Baldwin** (ATL) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 12.9% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-30-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*