# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 27, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Munetaka Murakami on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-27 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-27-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 27, 2026** are Munetaka Murakami (Score: 69, Munetaka Murakami rates a 69.1 dinger composite score against Kyle Freeland today), Pete Alonso (Score: 69, Pete Alonso rates a 68.7 dinger composite score against Elmer Rodríguez today), Randal Grichuk (Score: 69, Randal Grichuk rates a 68.5 dinger composite score against Kyle Freeland today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 27, 2026 266 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 26](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-26-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYM at WSH (Sean Manaea vs DJ Herz), 1:05 PM ET - BAL at NYY (Shane Baz vs Elmer Rodríguez), 1:05 PM ET - TB at PHI (Nick Martinez vs Zack Wheeler), 2:30 PM ET - CHC at BOS (Shota Imanaga vs Tanner Houck), 3:05 PM ET - HOU at ATH (Peter Lambert vs Seth Johnson), 3:05 PM ET - LAD at SF (Jack Dreyer vs Carson Seymour), 3:05 PM ET - CIN at TOR (Brandon Williamson vs Max Scherzer), 3:07 PM ET - CLE at KC (Parker Messick vs Daniel Lynch IV), 3:10 PM ET - PIT at DET (Jared Jones vs River Ryan), 3:10 PM ET - AZ at SD (Michael Soroka vs Randy Vásquez), 3:10 PM ET - LAA at SEA (Yusei Kikuchi vs Logan Gilbert), 3:10 PM ET - TEX at MIN (MacKenzie Gore vs Dean Kremer), 3:10 PM ET - COL at CWS (Kyle Freeland vs Anthony Kay), 3:10 PM ET - ATL at MIA (JR Ritchie vs Janson Junk), 3:10 PM ET - STL at MIL (Andre Pallante vs Jacob Misiorowski), 3:10 PM ET ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) *Rate Field · 35 HR · 20.2% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.466 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.66* **Top play tonight.** Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Kyle Freeland leans on a 4-seam fastball 24% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .696 against it. At 20.2%, Murakami carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. Kyle Freeland averages just 89.8 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Caveat: the same handed split (.378 SLG vs LHP) is not his best look. The power profile carries the day, but it is a real wrinkle. Murakami is my HR lean in this spot. ## Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Elmer Rodríguez (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 43 HR · 15.3% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.563 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.69* Pete Alonso has gone deep 5 times in his last 7 games. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks. Alonso squares the ball up at 15.3%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. That said, Elmer Rodríguez's 0.69 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. I am backing Alonso to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Randal Grichuk, Chicago White Sox vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) *Rate Field · 14 HR · 11.0% barrel · 102.8 mph EV · 0.478 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.66* The reason Randal Grichuk jumps off the board: Kyle Freeland can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.696 against this season. 24% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Randal Grichuk is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 11.0% barrel rate, which is above average territory. Kyle Freeland's 89.8 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Grichuk to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Seth Johnson: 16.0% barrel rate. - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Kyle Freeland: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs JR Ritchie: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Spencer Jones** (NYY) vs Shane Baz: 15.9% barrel rate. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Shane Baz: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-27-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-beating-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*