Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 27, 2026 are Munetaka Murakami (Score: 69, Munetaka Murakami rates a 69.1 dinger composite score against Kyle Freeland today), Pete Alonso (Score: 69, Pete Alonso rates a 68.7 dinger composite score against Elmer Rodríguez today), Randal Grichuk (Score: 69, Randal Grichuk rates a 68.5 dinger composite score against Kyle Freeland today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 27, 2026
266 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 26
Tonight's Slate
- NYM at WSH (Sean Manaea vs DJ Herz), 1:05 PM ET
- BAL at NYY (Shane Baz vs Elmer Rodríguez), 1:05 PM ET
- TB at PHI (Nick Martinez vs Zack Wheeler), 2:30 PM ET
- CHC at BOS (Shota Imanaga vs Tanner Houck), 3:05 PM ET
- HOU at ATH (Peter Lambert vs Seth Johnson), 3:05 PM ET
- LAD at SF (Jack Dreyer vs Carson Seymour), 3:05 PM ET
- CIN at TOR (Brandon Williamson vs Max Scherzer), 3:07 PM ET
- CLE at KC (Parker Messick vs Daniel Lynch IV), 3:10 PM ET
- PIT at DET (Jared Jones vs River Ryan), 3:10 PM ET
- AZ at SD (Michael Soroka vs Randy Vásquez), 3:10 PM ET
- LAA at SEA (Yusei Kikuchi vs Logan Gilbert), 3:10 PM ET
- TEX at MIN (MacKenzie Gore vs Dean Kremer), 3:10 PM ET
- COL at CWS (Kyle Freeland vs Anthony Kay), 3:10 PM ET
- ATL at MIA (JR Ritchie vs Janson Junk), 3:10 PM ET
- STL at MIL (Andre Pallante vs Jacob Misiorowski), 3:10 PM ET
Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Rate Field · 35 HR · 20.2% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.466 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.66
Top play tonight. Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Kyle Freeland leans on a 4-seam fastball 24% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .696 against it.
At 20.2%, Murakami carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. Kyle Freeland averages just 89.8 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Caveat: the same handed split (.378 SLG vs LHP) is not his best look. The power profile carries the day, but it is a real wrinkle. Murakami is my HR lean in this spot.
Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Elmer Rodríguez (RHP)
Yankee Stadium · 43 HR · 15.3% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.563 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.69
Pete Alonso has gone deep 5 times in his last 7 games. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks.
Alonso squares the ball up at 15.3%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. That said, Elmer Rodríguez's 0.69 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. I am backing Alonso to clear the fences.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Randal Grichuk, Chicago White Sox vs Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Rate Field · 14 HR · 11.0% barrel · 102.8 mph EV · 0.478 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.66
The reason Randal Grichuk jumps off the board: Kyle Freeland can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.696 against this season. 24% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Randal Grichuk is going to see it.
Underneath the matchup is a 11.0% barrel rate, which is above average territory. Kyle Freeland's 89.8 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Grichuk to go deep is the play tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs Seth Johnson: 16.0% barrel rate.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) vs Kyle Freeland: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) vs JR Ritchie: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Spencer Jones (NYY) vs Shane Baz: 15.9% barrel rate.
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs Shane Baz: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides