# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 26, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for September 26, 2026. Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 14 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-09-26 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-26-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, September 26, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 72, Yordan Alvarez rates a 71.8 dinger composite score against Jack Perkins today), Juan Soto (Score: 65, Juan Soto rates a 64.7 dinger composite score against Jake Irvin today), Lazaro Montes (Score: 64, Lazaro Montes rates a 63.8 dinger composite score against Ryan Johnson today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 26, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 292 candidates, 14 games, and here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 25](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-25-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PIT at DET (Lake Bachar vs Justin Verlander), 1:10 PM ET - CIN at TOR (Rhett Lowder vs Spencer Miles), 3:07 PM ET - NYM at WSH (Jonah Tong vs Jake Irvin), 4:05 PM ET - LAD at SF (Blake Snell vs Matt Wilkinson), 4:05 PM ET - TEX at MIN (TBD vs Bailey Ober), 4:10 PM ET - ATL at MIA (TBD vs Sandy Alcantara), 4:10 PM ET - CLE at KC (Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha), 7:10 PM ET - COL at CWS (Jose Quintana vs Davis Martin), 7:10 PM ET - STL at MIL (Quinn Mathews vs Dustin May), 7:10 PM ET - CHC at BOS (Matthew Boyd vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET - TB at PHI (Griffin Jax vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET - AZ at SD (Corbin Burnes vs TBD), 8:40 PM ET - HOU at ATH (Hayden Wesneski vs Jack Perkins), 9:40 PM ET - LAA at SEA (Ryan Johnson vs Kade Anderson), 9:40 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Jack Perkins (RHP) *Sutter Health Park · 41 HR · 16.1% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.640 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.35* **Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Jack Perkins leans on a 4-seam fastball 30% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .600 against it. At 16.1%, Alvarez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. ## Juan Soto, New York Mets vs Jake Irvin (RHP) *Nationals Park · 27 HR · 13.9% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.572 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.31* Lock in on the matchup math: 19% of Jake Irvin's pitches are his sinker, and hitters are punishing it (.681 SLG). Juan Soto has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (13.9%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Jake Irvin averages just 92.3 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Soto to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Lazaro Montes, Seattle Mariners vs Ryan Johnson (RHP) *T-Mobile Park · 4 HR · 16.0% barrel · 103.1 mph EV · 0.453 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.35* Ryan Johnson throws his sinker 18% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.746 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Lazaro Montes should be sitting on. The barrel rate (16.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Ryan Johnson averages just 90.5 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. I am backing Montes to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Jose Quintana: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Randal Grichuk** (CWS) vs Jose Quintana: Jose Quintana giving up 1.60 HR/9. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Matt Wilkinson: 16.6% barrel rate. - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Jose Quintana: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs Lake Bachar: 15.1% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-26-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*