Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, September 26, 2026 are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 72, Yordan Alvarez rates a 71.8 dinger composite score against Jack Perkins today), Juan Soto (Score: 65, Juan Soto rates a 64.7 dinger composite score against Connelly Early today), Lazaro Montes (Score: 64, Lazaro Montes rates a 63.8 dinger composite score against Ryan Johnson today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 26, 2026
Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 292 candidates, 14 games, and here are the plays.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 25
Tonight's Slate
- PIT at DET (Kirby Yates vs Justin Verlander), 1:10 PM ET
- CIN at TOR (Rhett Lowder vs Trey Yesavage), 3:07 PM ET
- NYM at WSH (Jonah Tong vs Connelly Early), 4:05 PM ET
- LAD at SF (Blake Snell vs Matt Wilkinson), 4:05 PM ET
- TEX at MIN (TBD vs Bailey Ober), 4:10 PM ET
- ATL at MIA (Brent Suter vs Jack Ralston), 4:10 PM ET
- CLE at KC (Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha), 7:10 PM ET
- COL at CWS (Jose Quintana vs Davis Martin), 7:10 PM ET
- STL at MIL (Quinn Mathews vs Dustin May), 7:10 PM ET
- CHC at BOS (Matthew Boyd vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET
- TB at PHI (Griffin Jax vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET
- AZ at SD (Corbin Burnes vs TBD), 8:40 PM ET
- HOU at ATH (Hayden Wesneski vs Jack Perkins), 9:40 PM ET
- LAA at SEA (Ryan Johnson vs Kade Anderson), 9:40 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Jack Perkins (RHP)
Sutter Health Park · 41 HR · 16.1% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.640 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.35
Top play tonight. Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Jack Perkins leans on a 4-seam fastball 30% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .600 against it.
At 16.1%, Alvarez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot.
Juan Soto, New York Mets vs Connelly Early (RHP)
Nationals Park · 27 HR · 13.9% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.572 xSLG
Juan Soto carries above-average barrel quality that shows up in every power metric. The 13.9% barrel rate is in the above-average tier — a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Soto's .572 xSLG is the kind of profile that punishes soft contact situations. Take Soto to leave the yard tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Lazaro Montes, Seattle Mariners vs Ryan Johnson (RHP)
T-Mobile Park · 4 HR · 16.0% barrel · 103.1 mph EV · 0.453 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.35
Ryan Johnson throws his sinker 18% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.746 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Lazaro Montes should be sitting on.
The barrel rate (16.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Ryan Johnson averages just 90.5 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. I am backing Montes to clear the fences.
Honorable Mentions
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs Jose Quintana: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) vs Jose Quintana: Jose Quintana giving up 1.60 HR/9.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Matt Wilkinson: 16.6% barrel rate.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) vs Jose Quintana: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Riley Greene (DET) vs Kirby Yates: 15.1% barrel rate.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides