# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 25, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (16 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-09-25 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 25, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 75, Yordan Alvarez rates a 74.7 dinger composite score against Jacob Lopez today), Spencer Jones (Score: 68, Spencer Jones rates a 68.3 dinger composite score against Trevor Rogers today), Rafael Flores Jr. (Score: 67, Rafael Flores Jr. rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Jackson Jobe today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 25, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 17 games. 302 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 24](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CHC at BOS (Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa), 1:05 PM ET - CHC at BOS (David Peterson vs Brayan Bello), 5:35 PM ET - BAL at NYY (Trevor Rogers vs Brendan Beck), 4:05 PM ET - BAL at NYY (Brandon Young vs TBD), 4:10 PM ET - PIT at DET (Bubba Chandler vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM ET - TB at PHI (Freddy Peralta vs Cristopher Sánchez), 6:40 PM ET - NYM at WSH (TBD vs Andrew Alvarez), 6:45 PM ET - CIN at TOR (Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM ET - ATL at MIA (Ray Kerr vs Eury Pérez), 7:10 PM ET - CLE at KC (Gavin Williams vs Noah Cameron), 7:40 PM ET - COL at CWS (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Sean Burke), 7:40 PM ET - STL at MIL (Michael McGreevy vs Robert Gasser), 7:40 PM ET - TEX at MIN (Jacob deGrom vs Joe Ryan), 8:10 PM ET - HOU at ATH (Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM ET - AZ at SD (Brandon Pfaadt vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - LAA at SEA (Reid Detmers vs Bryce Miller), 10:10 PM ET - LAD at SF (Tarik Skubal vs Yunior Marte), 10:15 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Jacob Lopez (LHP) *Sutter Health Park · 41 HR · 16.2% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.642 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.59* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 20% of Jacob Lopez's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.471 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez squares the ball up at 16.2%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Alvarez has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. An 88.8 mph fastball gives Alvarez something to drive. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences. ## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Trevor Rogers (LHP) *Yankee Stadium · 11 HR · 15.1% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.446 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.13* Spencer Jones's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Trevor Rogers leans on a changeup 21% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .476 against it. At 15.1%, Jones carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Trevor Rogers averages just 92.4 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Jones to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Rafael Flores Jr., Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jackson Jobe (RHP) *Comerica Park · 10 HR · 14.4% barrel · 101.7 mph EV · 0.507 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.57* Rafael Flores Jr.'s edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Jackson Jobe leans on a 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .659 against it. Jr. squares the ball up at 14.4%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Jr. has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. Take Jr. to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Jake Bennett: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Will Warren: 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Brandon Lowe** (PIT) vs Jackson Jobe: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Eury Pérez: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs Grant Holmes: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-25-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*