# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 24, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for September 24, 2026. A slate of 12 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Pete Crow-Armstrong leading tonight's HR picks **Date:** 2026-09-24 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-24-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 24, 2026** are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 73, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 72.7 dinger composite score against Tyler Phillips today), Rafael Flores Jr. (Score: 72, Rafael Flores Jr. rates a 71.8 dinger composite score against Kyle Leahy today), Matt Olson (Score: 70, Matt Olson rates a 69.9 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 24, 2026 230 batters, 12 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 23](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-23-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL at PIT (Kyle Leahy vs Paul Skenes), 12:35 PM ET - CWS at KC (TBD vs Randy Dobnak), 2:10 PM ET - MIA at CHC (Tyler Phillips vs TBD), 2:20 PM ET - NYM at TEX (Zac Thornton vs TBD), 2:35 PM ET - AZ at COL (Eduardo Rodriguez vs TBD), 3:10 PM ET - MIL at PHI (TBD vs Tim Mayza), 6:05 PM ET - CLE at BOS (Joey Cantillo vs Ranger Suarez), 6:45 PM ET - TB at NYY (Freddy Peralta vs Cam Schlittler), 7:05 PM ET - CIN at ATL (Brady Singer vs Tyler Mahle), 7:15 PM ET - HOU at ATH (Peter Lambert vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - LAA at SEA (Grayson Rodriguez vs Bryan Woo), 9:40 PM ET - SD at LAD (Nick Pivetta vs Tyler Glasnow), 10:10 PM ET ## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Tyler Phillips (RHP) *Wrigley Field · 45 HR · 13.6% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.514 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.70* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 26% of Tyler Phillips's pitches are his sinker, and hitters are punishing it (.504 SLG). Pete Crow-Armstrong has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (13.6%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. I am backing Crow-Armstrong to clear the fences. ## Rafael Flores Jr., Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kyle Leahy (RHP) *PNC Park · 10 HR · 14.9% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.47* Kyle Leahy throws his 4-seam fastball 26% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.579 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Rafael Flores Jr. should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 14.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Jr. is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Brady Singer (RHP) *Truist Park · 40 HR · 14.4% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.502 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.58* Matt Olson's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Brady Singer leans on a sweeper 13% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .526 against it. Olson squares the ball up at 14.4%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 90.7 mph fastball gives Olson something to drive. Take Olson to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Ronald Acuña Jr.** (ATL) vs Brady Singer: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Drake Baldwin** (ATL) vs Brady Singer: 12.6% barrel rate. - **Brandon Lowe** (PIT) vs Kyle Leahy: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Will Smith** (LAD) vs Nick Pivetta: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-24-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*