Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 24, 2026 are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 73, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 72.7 dinger composite score against Tyler Phillips today), Rafael Flores Jr. (Score: 72, Rafael Flores Jr. rates a 71.8 dinger composite score against Kyle Leahy today), Matt Olson (Score: 70, Matt Olson rates a 69.9 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 24, 2026
230 batters, 12 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 23
Tonight's Slate
- STL at PIT (Kyle Leahy vs Paul Skenes), 12:35 PM ET
- CWS at KC (David Sandlin vs Randy Dobnak), 2:10 PM ET
- MIA at CHC (Tyler Phillips vs Matthew Boyd), 2:20 PM ET
- NYM at TEX (Zac Thornton vs Kumar Rocker), 2:35 PM ET
- AZ at COL (Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tanner Gordon), 3:10 PM ET
- MIL at PHI (Shane Drohan vs Andrew Painter), 6:05 PM ET
- CLE at BOS (Joey Cantillo vs Ranger Suarez), 6:45 PM ET
- TB at NYY (Ian Seymour vs Cam Schlittler), 7:05 PM ET
- CIN at ATL (Brady Singer vs Tyler Mahle), 7:15 PM ET
- HOU at ATH (Peter Lambert vs Mason Barnett), 9:40 PM ET
- LAA at SEA (Grayson Rodriguez vs Bryan Woo), 9:40 PM ET
- SD at LAD (Nick Pivetta vs Tyler Glasnow), 10:10 PM ET
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Wrigley Field · 45 HR · 13.6% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.514 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.70
Top play tonight. Lock in on the matchup math: 26% of Tyler Phillips's pitches are his sinker, and hitters are punishing it (.504 SLG). Pete Crow-Armstrong has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
The barrel rate (13.6%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. I am backing Crow-Armstrong to clear the fences.
Rafael Flores Jr., Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kyle Leahy (RHP)
PNC Park · 10 HR · 14.9% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.47
Kyle Leahy throws his 4-seam fastball 26% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.579 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Rafael Flores Jr. should be sitting on.
Underneath the matchup is a 14.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Jr. is my HR lean in this spot.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Brady Singer (RHP)
Truist Park · 40 HR · 14.4% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.502 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.58
Matt Olson's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Brady Singer leans on a sweeper 13% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .526 against it.
Olson squares the ball up at 14.4%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 90.7 mph fastball gives Olson something to drive. Take Olson to leave the yard tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) vs Brady Singer: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) vs Brady Singer: 12.6% barrel rate.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) vs Kyle Leahy: 4 HR in his last 7 games.
- Will Smith (LAD) vs Nick Pivetta: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides