Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 23, 2026 are Spencer Jones (Score: 71, Spencer Jones rates a 70.7 dinger composite score against Mason Englert today), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 68, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 67.9 dinger composite score against Ryan Gusto today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 66, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.0 dinger composite score against George Kirby today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 23, 2026
15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 22
Tonight's Slate
- WSH at DET (Richard Lovelady vs Framber Valdez), 1:10 PM ET
- MIN at SF (Connor Prielipp vs Cesar Perdomo), 3:45 PM ET
- TOR at BAL (TBD vs TBD), 6:35 PM ET
- STL at PIT (Matthew Liberatore vs Lake Bachar), 6:40 PM ET
- MIL at PHI (Logan Henderson vs Aaron Nola), 6:40 PM ET
- TB at NYY (Mason Englert vs Gerrit Cole), 7:05 PM ET
- CLE at BOS (Foster Griffin vs Sonny Gray), 7:10 PM ET
- CIN at ATL (Andrew Abbott vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM ET
- CWS at KC (Bryan Hudson vs Seth Lugo), 7:40 PM ET
- MIA at CHC (Ryan Gusto vs Kevin Gausman), 7:40 PM ET
- NYM at TEX (Nolan McLean vs Cody Bradford), 8:05 PM ET
- AZ at COL (Merrill Kelly vs Mason Adams), 8:40 PM ET
- LAA at ATH (Walbert Ureña vs Jeffrey Springs), 9:40 PM ET
- SD at LAD (Robbie Ray vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 10:10 PM ET
- HOU at SEA (Ethan Pecko vs George Kirby), 10:10 PM ET
Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Mason Englert (RHP)
Yankee Stadium · 11 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.453 xSLG
Top play tonight. Spencer Jones's power profile leads the board. A 15.9% barrel rate puts him in the elite tier, and 104.5 mph average exit velocity is the engine behind genuine power.
He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Confirm the final starting pitcher before placing this bet — TB's starter was updated from the initially projected arm. Jones is my HR lean in this spot.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Ryan Gusto (RHP)
Wrigley Field · 45 HR · 13.7% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48
Ryan Gusto throws his sinker 12% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.676 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Pete Crow-Armstrong should be sitting on.
Underneath the matchup is a 13.7% barrel rate, which is above average territory. 4 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Crow-Armstrong is my HR lean in this spot.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs George Kirby (RHP)
T-Mobile Park · 40 HR · 16.0% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.637 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.11
Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. George Kirby leans on a curveball 10% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .618 against it.
The barrel rate (16.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT) vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) vs Merrill Kelly: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs Mason Englert: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs Logan Henderson: 16.1% barrel rate.
- Matt Olson (ATL) vs Andrew Abbott: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides