# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 23, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Spencer Jones on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-23 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 23, 2026** are Spencer Jones (Score: 71, Spencer Jones rates a 70.7 dinger composite score against Ian Seymour today), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 68, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 67.9 dinger composite score against Ryan Gusto today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 66, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.0 dinger composite score against George Kirby today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 23, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 22](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - WSH at DET (Cade Cavalli vs Framber Valdez), 1:10 PM ET - MIN at SF (TBD vs Cesar Perdomo), 3:45 PM ET - TOR at BAL (TBD vs TBD), 6:35 PM ET - STL at PIT (Matthew Liberatore vs TBD), 6:40 PM ET - MIL at PHI (Logan Henderson vs Aaron Nola), 6:40 PM ET - TB at NYY (Ian Seymour vs Gerrit Cole), 7:05 PM ET - CLE at BOS (Foster Griffin vs Sonny Gray), 7:10 PM ET - CIN at ATL (Andrew Abbott vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM ET - CWS at KC (Erick Fedde vs Seth Lugo), 7:40 PM ET - MIA at CHC (Ryan Gusto vs Shota Imanaga), 7:40 PM ET - NYM at TEX (Nolan McLean vs TBD), 8:05 PM ET - AZ at COL (Merrill Kelly vs Mason Adams), 8:40 PM ET - LAA at ATH (Walbert Ureña vs Jeffrey Springs), 9:40 PM ET - SD at LAD (Robbie Ray vs Blake Snell), 10:10 PM ET - HOU at SEA (TBD vs George Kirby), 10:10 PM ET ## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Ian Seymour (LHP) *Yankee Stadium · 11 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.453 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.35* **Top play tonight.** Spencer Jones's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Ian Seymour leans on a sinker 16% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .554 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 15.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Ian Seymour's 90.8 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Jones is my HR lean in this spot. ## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Ryan Gusto (RHP) *Wrigley Field · 45 HR · 13.7% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48* Ryan Gusto throws his sinker 12% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.676 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Pete Crow-Armstrong should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 13.7% barrel rate, which is above average territory. 4 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Crow-Armstrong is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs George Kirby (RHP) *T-Mobile Park · 40 HR · 16.0% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.637 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.11* Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. George Kirby leans on a curveball 10% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .618 against it. The barrel rate (16.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Rafael Flores Jr.** (PIT) vs Matthew Liberatore: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Merrill Kelly: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Ian Seymour: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Logan Henderson: 16.1% barrel rate. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Andrew Abbott: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-23-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*