# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 22, 2026): Best Home Run Bets

> MLB HR picks for September 22, 2026. Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 16 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored.

**Date:** 2026-09-22  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-22-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, September 22, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 72, Yordan Alvarez rates a 71.8 dinger composite score against Logan Gilbert today), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 68, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 68.3 dinger composite score against Janson Junk today), Pete Alonso (Score: 67, Pete Alonso rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Max Scherzer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 22, 2026

Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 383 candidates, 16 games, and here are the plays.

> [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 21](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-21-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- TB at NYY (Nick Martinez vs Carlos Rodón), 1:05 PM ET
- TB at NYY (Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried), 7:05 PM ET
- TOR at BAL (Max Scherzer vs Chris Bassitt), 6:35 PM ET
- WSH at DET (Riley Cornelio vs Drew Anderson), 6:40 PM ET
- STL at PIT (Andre Pallante vs Jared Jones), 6:40 PM ET
- MIL at PHI (Dustin May vs Zack Wheeler), 6:40 PM ET
- CLE at BOS (Parker Messick vs Payton Tolle), 6:45 PM ET
- CIN at ATL (Brandon Williamson vs JR Ritchie), 7:15 PM ET
- CWS at KC (Anthony Kay vs Daniel Lynch IV), 7:40 PM ET
- MIA at CHC (Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga), 7:40 PM ET
- NYM at TEX (Sean Manaea vs MacKenzie Gore), 8:05 PM ET
- AZ at COL (Michael Soroka vs Kyle Freeland), 8:40 PM ET
- LAA at ATH (Yusei Kikuchi vs Brady Basso), 9:40 PM ET
- HOU at SEA (Cristian Javier vs Logan Gilbert), 9:40 PM ET
- MIN at SF (Taj Bradley vs Anthony Molina), 9:45 PM ET
- SD at LAD (Michael King vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 10:10 PM ET

## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Logan Gilbert (RHP)

*T-Mobile Park · 40 HR · 16.0% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.637 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.11*

**Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Logan Gilbert leans on a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .489 against it.

His 16.0% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot.

## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Janson Junk (RHP)

*Wrigley Field · 45 HR · 13.7% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.32*

Lock in on the matchup math: 14% of Janson Junk's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.554 SLG). Pete Crow-Armstrong has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.

Crow-Armstrong squares the ball up at 13.7%, above average contact quality on the year. Crow-Armstrong has been swinging at peak, 4 long balls in his last 7 games. Take Crow-Armstrong to leave the yard tonight.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats).

## Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Max Scherzer (RHP)

*Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 38 HR · 14.3% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.546 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.52*

The reason Pete Alonso jumps off the board: Max Scherzer can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.672 against this season. 17% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Pete Alonso is going to see it.

At 14.3%, Alonso carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Max Scherzer averages just 92.4 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Alonso to go deep is the play tonight.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Elly De La Cruz** (CIN) vs JR Ritchie: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Corbin Carroll** (AZ) vs Kyle Freeland: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Brandon Williamson: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs Shota Imanaga: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Jake Burger** (TEX) vs Sean Manaea: 12.5% barrel rate.

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-22-2026): no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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