Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, September 21, 2026 are Pete Alonso (Score: 66, Pete Alonso rates a 65.5 dinger composite score against Trey Yesavage today), Victor Bericoto (Score: 64, Victor Bericoto rates a 63.7 dinger composite score against Zebby Matthews today), James Wood (Score: 61, James Wood rates a 61.0 dinger composite score against River Ryan today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 21, 2026
73 power bats scored across 3 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 20
Tonight's Slate
- TOR at BAL (Trey Yesavage vs Shane Baz), 6:35 PM ET
- WSH at DET (DJ Herz vs River Ryan), 6:40 PM ET
- MIN at SF (Zebby Matthews vs Blade Tidwell), 9:45 PM ET
Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Trey Yesavage (RHP)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 38 HR · 14.5% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.548 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.97
Top play tonight. Pete Alonso has gone deep 4 times in his last 7 games. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks.
Alonso squares the ball up at 14.5%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Trey Yesavage is also a fly ball arm (36% ground ball rate), so balls in play go up rather than into the dirt. Take Alonso to leave the yard tonight.
Victor Bericoto, San Francisco Giants vs Zebby Matthews (RHP)
Oracle Park · 5 HR · 15.4% barrel · 100.9 mph EV · 0.475 xSLG
Zebby Matthews carries a 4.74 ERA on the season and gives up hard contact. Victor Bericoto has the Statcast profile to take advantage.
Bericoto squares the ball up at 15.4%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. The power tools are real and Matthews has shown early-inning vulnerability this season. I am backing Bericoto to clear the fences.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
James Wood, Washington Nationals vs River Ryan (RHP)
Comerica Park · 30 HR · 19.4% barrel · 106.2 mph EV · 0.564 xSLG
James Wood is a lefty who eats right handers, .537 slugging in that split with 21 home runs. River Ryan fits the script.
Underneath the matchup is a 19.4% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Wood is my HR lean in this spot.
Honorable Mentions
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) vs DJ Herz: 16.7% barrel rate.
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) vs Shane Baz: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) vs Zebby Matthews: 17 on the season.
- Riley Greene (DET) vs DJ Herz: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) vs Trey Yesavage: 13.4% barrel rate.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides