# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 21, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (3 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabil **Date:** 2026-09-21 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-21-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, September 21, 2026** are Pete Alonso (Score: 66, Pete Alonso rates a 65.5 dinger composite score against Trey Yesavage today), Victor Bericoto (Score: 64, Victor Bericoto rates a 63.7 dinger composite score against Bailey Ober today), James Wood (Score: 61, James Wood rates a 61.0 dinger composite score against Drew Anderson today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 21, 2026 73 power bats scored across 3 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 20](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-20-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TOR at BAL (Trey Yesavage vs Shane Baz), 6:35 PM ET - WSH at DET (Jackson Kent vs Drew Anderson), 6:40 PM ET - MIN at SF (Bailey Ober vs Landen Roupp), 9:45 PM ET ## Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Trey Yesavage (RHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 38 HR · 14.5% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.548 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.97* **Top play tonight.** Pete Alonso has gone deep 4 times in his last 7 games. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks. Alonso squares the ball up at 14.5%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Trey Yesavage is also a fly ball arm (36% ground ball rate), so balls in play go up rather than into the dirt. Take Alonso to leave the yard tonight. ## Victor Bericoto, San Francisco Giants vs Bailey Ober (RHP) *Oracle Park · 5 HR · 15.4% barrel · 100.9 mph EV · 0.475 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.23* The reason Victor Bericoto jumps off the board: Bailey Ober can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.552 against this season. 32% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Victor Bericoto is going to see it. Bericoto squares the ball up at 15.4%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. An 88.1 mph fastball gives Bericoto something to drive. I am backing Bericoto to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Drew Anderson (RHP) *Comerica Park · 30 HR · 19.4% barrel · 106.2 mph EV · 0.564 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.98* James Wood is a lefty who eats right handers, .537 slugging in that split with 21 home runs. Drew Anderson fits the script. Underneath the matchup is a 19.4% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Wood is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Jackson Kent: 16.7% barrel rate. - **Kazuma Okamoto** (TOR) vs Shane Baz: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Bryce Eldridge** (SF) vs Bailey Ober: 17 on the season. - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs Jackson Kent: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Coby Mayo** (BAL) vs Trey Yesavage: 13.4% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-21-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*