Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 20, 2026 are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 71, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 70.7 dinger composite score against Rhett Lowder today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 69.0 dinger composite score against Martín Pérez today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 68, Elly De La Cruz rates a 68.0 dinger composite score against David Peterson today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 20, 2026
A slate of 15 games and 355 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 19
Tonight's Slate
- PHI at NYM (Cristopher Sánchez vs Jonah Tong), 1:10 PM ET
- KC at PIT (Michael Wacha vs Lake Bachar), 1:35 PM ET
- CHC at CIN (David Peterson vs Rhett Lowder), 1:40 PM ET
- ATH at CLE (Jack Perkins vs Gavin Williams), 1:40 PM ET
- BOS at TB (Patrick Sandoval vs Griffin Jax), 1:40 PM ET
- ATL at HOU (Martín Pérez vs Hunter Brown), 2:10 PM ET
- DET at CWS (Troy Melton vs Davis Martin), 2:10 PM ET
- WSH at STL (Jake Irvin vs Quinn Mathews), 2:15 PM ET
- TOR at TEX (TBD vs Jacob deGrom), 2:35 PM ET
- SEA at COL (Kade Anderson vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 3:10 PM ET
- MIN at LAA (Dean Kremer vs Ryan Johnson), 4:07 PM ET
- SF at LAD (Matt Wilkinson vs TBD), 4:10 PM ET
- MIA at SD (Sandy Alcantara vs Walker Buehler), 4:10 PM ET
- NYY at AZ (Will Warren vs Corbin Burnes), 4:10 PM ET
- MIL at BAL (Jacob Misiorowski vs Brandon Young), 7:20 PM ET
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Rhett Lowder (RHP)
Great American Ball Park · 44 HR · 13.5% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.513 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.38
Top play tonight. Lock in on the matchup math: 28% of Rhett Lowder's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.514 SLG). Pete Crow-Armstrong has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
Crow-Armstrong sits at 13.5%, barrel rate squarely in the top 25% of qualified hitters, and that profile carries the lean. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. I am backing Crow-Armstrong to clear the fences.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Martín Pérez (LHP)
Daikin Park · 40 HR · 16.3% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.640 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.68
Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Yordan Alvarez's elite 16.3% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 104.9 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious.
Alvarez has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. Martín Pérez averages just 87.8 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. One reason to size down: Martín Pérez has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.68 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs David Peterson (LHP)
Great American Ball Park · 28 HR · 16.3% barrel · 105.6 mph EV · 0.507 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.82
Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of David Peterson's pitches are his curveball, and hitters are punishing it (.509 SLG). Elly De La Cruz has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
His 16.3% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. An 92.3 mph fastball gives Cruz something to drive. Cruz is my HR lean in this spot.
Honorable Mentions
- Leo Bernal (STL) vs Jake Irvin: 3 on the season.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) vs Corbin Burnes: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Corbin Burnes: 20.9% barrel rate.
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs Corbin Burnes: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Alec Burleson (STL) vs Jake Irvin: 23 on the season.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides