# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 20, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for September 20, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Pete Crow-Armstrong leading tonight's HR picks **Date:** 2026-09-20 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-20-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 20, 2026** are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 71, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 70.7 dinger composite score against Rhett Lowder today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 69.0 dinger composite score against Martín Pérez today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 68, Elly De La Cruz rates a 68.0 dinger composite score against David Peterson today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 20, 2026 A slate of 15 games and 355 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 19](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-19-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PHI at NYM (Cristopher Sánchez vs Jonah Tong), 1:10 PM ET - KC at PIT (Michael Wacha vs Lake Bachar), 1:35 PM ET - CHC at CIN (David Peterson vs Rhett Lowder), 1:40 PM ET - ATH at CLE (Jack Perkins vs Gavin Williams), 1:40 PM ET - BOS at TB (Patrick Sandoval vs Griffin Jax), 1:40 PM ET - ATL at HOU (Martín Pérez vs Hunter Brown), 2:10 PM ET - DET at CWS (Troy Melton vs Davis Martin), 2:10 PM ET - WSH at STL (Jake Irvin vs Quinn Mathews), 2:15 PM ET - TOR at TEX (TBD vs Jacob deGrom), 2:35 PM ET - SEA at COL (Kade Anderson vs Kyle Freeland), 3:10 PM ET - MIN at LAA (Dean Kremer vs Ryan Johnson), 4:07 PM ET - SF at LAD (Landen Roupp vs TBD), 4:10 PM ET - MIA at SD (Sandy Alcantara vs Walker Buehler), 4:10 PM ET - NYY at AZ (Will Warren vs Corbin Burnes), 4:10 PM ET - MIL at BAL (Jacob Misiorowski vs Brandon Young), 7:20 PM ET ## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Rhett Lowder (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 44 HR · 13.5% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.513 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.38* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 28% of Rhett Lowder's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.514 SLG). Pete Crow-Armstrong has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Crow-Armstrong sits at 13.5%, barrel rate squarely in the top 25% of qualified hitters, and that profile carries the lean. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. I am backing Crow-Armstrong to clear the fences. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Martín Pérez (LHP) *Daikin Park · 40 HR · 16.3% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.640 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.68* Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Yordan Alvarez's elite 16.3% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 104.9 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious. Alvarez has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. Martín Pérez averages just 87.8 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. One reason to size down: Martín Pérez has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.68 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs David Peterson (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 28 HR · 16.3% barrel · 105.6 mph EV · 0.507 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.82* Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of David Peterson's pitches are his curveball, and hitters are punishing it (.509 SLG). Elly De La Cruz has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 16.3% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. An 92.3 mph fastball gives Cruz something to drive. Cruz is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Leo Bernal** (STL) vs Jake Irvin: 3 on the season. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Corbin Burnes: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Corbin Burnes: 20.9% barrel rate. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Corbin Burnes: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Alec Burleson** (STL) vs Jake Irvin: 23 on the season. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-20-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*