# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 2, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for September 2, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Pete Alonso leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-09-02 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-2-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 2, 2026** are Pete Alonso (Score: 67, Pete Alonso rates a 67.3 dinger composite score against Tomoyuki Sugano today), Spencer Jones (Score: 65, Spencer Jones rates a 64.8 dinger composite score against Reid Detmers today), Hunter Goodman (Score: 64, Hunter Goodman rates a 64.3 dinger composite score against Trevor Rogers today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 2, 2026 316 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 1](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-1-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at CIN (Casey Mize vs Brandon Williamson), 12:40 PM ET - ATL at WSH (Grant Holmes vs Jackson Kent), 1:05 PM ET - ATH at TEX (Jacob Lopez vs Cody Bradford), 2:35 PM ET - BAL at COL (Trevor Rogers vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 3:10 PM ET - PHI at AZ (Andrew Painter vs TBD), 3:40 PM ET - SEA at BOS (Bryce Miller vs Patrick Sandoval), 4:10 PM ET - SF at PIT (Landen Roupp vs Jared Jones), 6:40 PM ET - NYM at TB (Justin Hagenman vs Shane McClanahan), 6:40 PM ET - TOR at CLE (Dylan Cease vs Joey Cantillo), 6:40 PM ET - DET at MIN (Drew Anderson vs Dean Kremer), 7:40 PM ET - MIA at KC (Eury Pérez vs Noah Cameron), 7:40 PM ET - MIL at CHC (Jacob Misiorowski vs David Peterson), 7:40 PM ET - CWS at HOU (TBD vs Hayden Wesneski), 8:10 PM ET - NYY at LAA (Cam Schlittler vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM ET - STL at LAD (TBD vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 10:10 PM ET ## Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) *Coors Field · 32 HR · 13.8% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.545 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.16* **Top play tonight.** Pete Alonso's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Tomoyuki Sugano leans on a cutter 11% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .767 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 13.8% barrel rate, which is above average territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Tomoyuki Sugano's 91.6 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. Alonso is my HR lean in this spot. ## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Reid Detmers (LHP) *Angel Stadium · 8 HR · 15.3% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.450 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.59* When Spencer Jones connects, the average exit velocity is 104.4 mph and his elite 15.3% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) means he is squaring balls up at a top of the league rate. Reid Detmers is the matchup to take advantage. That said, Reid Detmers's 0.59 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Jones to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies vs Trevor Rogers (LHP) *Coors Field · 36 HR · 16.3% barrel · 102.7 mph EV · 0.469 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.43* Hunter Goodman's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Trevor Rogers leans on a changeup 22% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .465 against it. Goodman sits at 16.3%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Trevor Rogers's 92.2 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Park factor is the kicker: 5,200 ft means warning track flies become souvenirs. Take Goodman to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Dean Kremer: 18.9% barrel rate. - **Andrés Chaparro** (WSH) vs Grant Holmes: 13.9% barrel rate. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 15.9% barrel rate. - **Coby Mayo** (BAL) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Landen Roupp: 17.9% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-2-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*