# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 19, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for September 19, 2026. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-09-19 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-19-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, September 19, 2026** are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 69, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 68.6 dinger composite score against Nick Lodolo today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.6 dinger composite score against Grant Holmes today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 65, Elly De La Cruz rates a 65.3 dinger composite score against Matthew Boyd today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 19, 2026 380 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 18](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-18-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIL at BAL (Robert Gasser vs Trevor Rogers), 4:05 PM ET - BOS at TB (Payton Tolle vs Freddy Peralta), 4:10 PM ET - PHI at NYM (Andrew Painter vs Christian Scott), 4:10 PM ET - ATH at CLE (Jacob Lopez vs Tanner Bibee), 6:10 PM ET - CHC at CIN (Matthew Boyd vs Nick Lodolo), 6:40 PM ET - KC at PIT (Noah Cameron vs Bubba Chandler), 6:40 PM ET - TOR at TEX (José Soriano vs Cal Quantrill), 7:05 PM ET - ATL at HOU (Grant Holmes vs Hayden Wesneski), 7:10 PM ET - DET at CWS (Jackson Jobe vs Sean Burke), 7:10 PM ET - WSH at STL (Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy), 7:15 PM ET - SEA at COL (Bryce Miller vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:10 PM ET - NYY at AZ (Cam Schlittler vs Brandon Pfaadt), 8:10 PM ET - MIA at SD (Eury Pérez vs Casey Mize), 8:40 PM ET - SF at LAD (Logan Webb vs Tarik Skubal), 9:10 PM ET - MIN at LAA (Joe Ryan vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM ET ## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Nick Lodolo (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 44 HR · 13.6% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.90* **Top play tonight.** The reason Pete Crow-Armstrong jumps off the board: Nick Lodolo can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.629 against this season. 26% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to see it. Crow-Armstrong squares the ball up at 13.6%, above average contact quality on the year. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Take Crow-Armstrong to leave the yard tonight. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Grant Holmes (RHP) *Daikin Park · 40 HR · 16.4% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.642 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.96* Grant Holmes throws his 4-seam fastball 29% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.458 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on. His 16.4% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Matthew Boyd (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 28 HR · 16.4% barrel · 105.6 mph EV · 0.507 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.71* The reason Elly De La Cruz jumps off the board: Matthew Boyd can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.476 against this season. 45% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Elly De La Cruz is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 16.4% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Cruz has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. One reason to size down: Matthew Boyd has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.71 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Cruz to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Coby Mayo** (BAL) vs Robert Gasser: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Robert Gasser: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs Sean Burke: 15.0% barrel rate. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 20.9% barrel rate. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Jackson Jobe: 18.9% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-19-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*