Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, September 19, 2026 are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 69, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 68.6 dinger composite score against Nick Lodolo today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.6 dinger composite score against Grant Holmes today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 65, Elly De La Cruz rates a 65.3 dinger composite score against Matthew Boyd today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 19, 2026
380 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 18
Tonight's Slate
- MIL at BAL (Robert Gasser vs Trevor Rogers), 4:05 PM ET
- BOS at TB (Payton Tolle vs Freddy Peralta), 4:10 PM ET
- PHI at NYM (Andrew Painter vs Christian Scott), 4:10 PM ET
- ATH at CLE (Jacob Lopez vs Tanner Bibee), 6:10 PM ET
- CHC at CIN (Matthew Boyd vs Nick Lodolo), 6:40 PM ET
- KC at PIT (Noah Cameron vs Bubba Chandler), 6:40 PM ET
- TOR at TEX (José Soriano vs Cal Quantrill), 7:05 PM ET
- ATL at HOU (Grant Holmes vs Hayden Wesneski), 7:10 PM ET
- DET at CWS (Jackson Jobe vs Sean Burke), 7:10 PM ET
- WSH at STL (Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy), 7:15 PM ET
- SEA at COL (Bryce Miller vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:10 PM ET
- NYY at AZ (Cam Schlittler vs Brandon Pfaadt), 8:10 PM ET
- MIA at SD (Eury Pérez vs Casey Mize), 8:40 PM ET
- SF at LAD (Logan Webb vs Tarik Skubal), 9:10 PM ET
- MIN at LAA (Joe Ryan vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM ET
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Nick Lodolo (LHP)
Great American Ball Park · 44 HR · 13.6% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.90
Top play tonight. The reason Pete Crow-Armstrong jumps off the board: Nick Lodolo can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.629 against this season. 26% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to see it.
Crow-Armstrong squares the ball up at 13.6%, above average contact quality on the year. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Take Crow-Armstrong to leave the yard tonight.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Grant Holmes (RHP)
Daikin Park · 40 HR · 16.4% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.642 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.96
Grant Holmes throws his 4-seam fastball 29% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.458 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on.
His 16.4% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Great American Ball Park · 28 HR · 16.4% barrel · 105.6 mph EV · 0.507 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.71
The reason Elly De La Cruz jumps off the board: Matthew Boyd can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.476 against this season. 45% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Elly De La Cruz is going to see it.
Underneath the matchup is a 16.4% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Cruz has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. One reason to size down: Matthew Boyd has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.71 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Cruz to go deep is the play tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Coby Mayo (BAL) vs Robert Gasser: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) vs Robert Gasser: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Riley Greene (DET) vs Sean Burke: 15.0% barrel rate.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 20.9% barrel rate.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs Jackson Jobe: 18.9% barrel rate.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides