Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 18, 2026 are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 69, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 69.0 dinger composite score against Chase Burns today), Spencer Jones (Score: 67, Spencer Jones rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Eduardo Rodriguez today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.8 dinger composite score against Tyler Mahle today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 18, 2026
Best HR plays from tonight's 15 games. 314 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 17
Tonight's Slate
- CHC at CIN (Clay Holmes vs Chase Burns), 6:40 PM ET
- KC at PIT (Randy Dobnak vs Paul Skenes), 6:40 PM ET
- MIL at BAL (Dustin May vs TBD), 7:05 PM ET
- ATH at CLE (TBD vs Daniel Espino), 7:10 PM ET
- BOS at TB (Ranger Suarez vs Ian Seymour), 7:10 PM ET
- PHI at NYM (TBD vs Zac Thornton), 7:15 PM ET
- DET at CWS (Andrew Sears vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET
- TOR at TEX (Dylan Cease vs TBD), 8:05 PM ET
- SEA at COL (Bryan Woo vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:10 PM ET
- ATL at HOU (Tyler Mahle vs Peter Lambert), 8:10 PM ET
- WSH at STL (Cade Cavalli vs Kyle Leahy), 8:15 PM ET
- MIN at LAA (Connor Prielipp vs Grayson Rodriguez), 9:38 PM ET
- MIA at SD (Tyler Phillips vs Nick Pivetta), 9:40 PM ET
- NYY at AZ (Gerrit Cole vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 9:40 PM ET
- SF at LAD (Cesar Perdomo vs Tyler Glasnow), 10:15 PM ET
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Chase Burns (RHP)
Great American Ball Park · 44 HR · 13.6% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.22
Top play tonight. Tonight is a platoon spot the model loves: Pete Crow-Armstrong (33 HR vs RHP, .609 SLG in that split) drawing Chase Burns.
At 13.6%, Crow-Armstrong carries above average barrel rate, well past the league mean. Crow-Armstrong has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. Crow-Armstrong to go deep is the play tonight.
Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)
Chase Field · 10 HR · 15.6% barrel · 104.3 mph EV · 0.450 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.93
Spencer Jones's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Eduardo Rodriguez leans on a cutter 13% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .470 against it.
His 15.6% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. An 91.3 mph fastball gives Jones something to drive. Jones to go deep is the play tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Tyler Mahle (RHP)
Daikin Park · 39 HR · 16.3% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.640 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.08
Yordan Alvarez is a lefty who eats right handers, .629 slugging in that split with 29 home runs. Tyler Mahle fits the script.
Alvarez sits at 16.3%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Tyler Mahle's 91.6 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences.
Honorable Mentions
- James Wood (WSH) vs Kyle Leahy: 19.9% barrel rate.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs Zac Thornton: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Willson Contreras (BOS) vs Ian Seymour: 13.5% barrel rate.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 20.9% barrel rate.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) vs Dustin May: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides