# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 18, 2026): Best Home Run Bets

> Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (15 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi

**Date:** 2026-09-18  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-18-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 18, 2026** are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 69, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 69.0 dinger composite score against Chase Burns today), Spencer Jones (Score: 67, Spencer Jones rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Eduardo Rodriguez today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.8 dinger composite score against Tyler Mahle today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 18, 2026

Best HR plays from tonight's 15 games. 314 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form.

> [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 17](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-17-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- CHC at CIN (Clay Holmes vs Chase Burns), 6:40 PM ET
- KC at PIT (Randy Dobnak vs Paul Skenes), 6:40 PM ET
- MIL at BAL (Dustin May vs TBD), 7:05 PM ET
- ATH at CLE (TBD vs Daniel Espino), 7:10 PM ET
- BOS at TB (Ranger Suarez vs Ian Seymour), 7:10 PM ET
- PHI at NYM (TBD vs Zac Thornton), 7:15 PM ET
- DET at CWS (Andrew Sears vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET
- TOR at TEX (Dylan Cease vs TBD), 8:05 PM ET
- SEA at COL (Bryan Woo vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:10 PM ET
- ATL at HOU (Tyler Mahle vs Peter Lambert), 8:10 PM ET
- WSH at STL (Cade Cavalli vs Kyle Leahy), 8:15 PM ET
- MIN at LAA (Connor Prielipp vs Grayson Rodriguez), 9:38 PM ET
- MIA at SD (Tyler Phillips vs Nick Pivetta), 9:40 PM ET
- NYY at AZ (Gerrit Cole vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 9:40 PM ET
- SF at LAD (Cesar Perdomo vs Tyler Glasnow), 10:15 PM ET

## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Chase Burns (RHP)

*Great American Ball Park · 44 HR · 13.6% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.22*

**Top play tonight.** Tonight is a platoon spot the model loves: Pete Crow-Armstrong (33 HR vs RHP, .609 SLG in that split) drawing Chase Burns.

At 13.6%, Crow-Armstrong carries above average barrel rate, well past the league mean. Crow-Armstrong has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. Crow-Armstrong to go deep is the play tonight.

## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

*Chase Field · 10 HR · 15.6% barrel · 104.3 mph EV · 0.450 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.93*

Spencer Jones's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Eduardo Rodriguez leans on a cutter 13% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .470 against it.

His 15.6% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. An 91.3 mph fastball gives Jones something to drive. Jones to go deep is the play tonight.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats).

## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Tyler Mahle (RHP)

*Daikin Park · 39 HR · 16.3% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.640 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.08*

Yordan Alvarez is a lefty who eats right handers, .629 slugging in that split with 29 home runs. Tyler Mahle fits the script.

Alvarez sits at 16.3%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Tyler Mahle's 91.6 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences.

## Honorable Mentions

- **James Wood** (WSH) vs Kyle Leahy: 19.9% barrel rate.
- **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Zac Thornton: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Willson Contreras** (BOS) vs Ian Seymour: 13.5% barrel rate.
- **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 20.9% barrel rate.
- **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Dustin May: 3 HR in his last 7 games.

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-18-2026): no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*