Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 17, 2026 are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 76, Yordan Alvarez rates a 75.9 dinger composite score against Seth Lugo today), Juan Soto (Score: 68, Juan Soto rates a 67.7 dinger composite score against Aaron Nola today), Max Muncy (Score: 67, Max Muncy rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 17, 2026
A slate of 9 games and 153 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 16
Tonight's Slate
- MIL at PIT (Kyle Harrison vs Wilber Dotel), 12:35 PM ET
- LAD at CIN (Justin Wrobleski vs Brady Singer), 12:40 PM ET
- ATH at TB (Jeffrey Springs vs Drew Rasmussen), 1:10 PM ET
- SD at COL (Michael King vs Tanner Gordon), 3:10 PM ET
- KC at HOU (Seth Lugo vs Miguel Ullola), 7:15 PM ET
- PHI at NYM (Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean), 7:15 PM ET
- DET at CWS (Framber Valdez vs Erick Fedde), 7:40 PM ET
- BOS at TEX (Sonny Gray vs Tyler Alexander), 8:05 PM ET
- MIN at LAA (Taj Bradley vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Seth Lugo (RHP)
Daikin Park · 39 HR · 16.2% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.642 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.45
Top play tonight. Seth Lugo throws his 4-seam fastball 16% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.675 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on.
At 16.2%, Alvarez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Seth Lugo averages just 91.0 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight.
Juan Soto, New York Mets vs Aaron Nola (RHP)
Citi Field · 25 HR · 13.8% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.573 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.54
The reason Juan Soto jumps off the board: Aaron Nola can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.683 against this season. 24% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Juan Soto is going to see it.
The barrel rate (13.8%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Aaron Nola averages just 91.1 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. I am backing Soto to clear the fences.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Brady Singer (RHP)
Great American Ball Park · 28 HR · 13.0% barrel · 101.1 mph EV · 0.464 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.18
The reason Max Muncy jumps off the board: Brady Singer can be hit on his sweeper, which batters are slugging 0.526 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Max Muncy is going to see it.
Underneath the matchup is a 13.0% barrel rate, which is above average territory. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Brady Singer's 90.7 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Muncy to go deep is the play tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Jackson Merrill (SD) vs Tanner Gordon: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) vs Tanner Gordon: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Junior Caminero (TB) vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Nelson Velázquez (HOU) vs Seth Lugo: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) vs Michael King: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides