# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 17, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for September 17, 2026. A slate of 9 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Yordan Alvarez leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-09-17 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-17-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 17, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 76, Yordan Alvarez rates a 75.9 dinger composite score against Seth Lugo today), Juan Soto (Score: 68, Juan Soto rates a 67.7 dinger composite score against Aaron Nola today), Max Muncy (Score: 67, Max Muncy rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 17, 2026 A slate of 9 games and 153 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 16](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-16-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - MIL at PIT (Dustin May vs TBD), 12:35 PM ET - LAD at CIN (TBD vs Brady Singer), 12:40 PM ET - ATH at TB (Jeffrey Springs vs Drew Rasmussen), 1:10 PM ET - SD at COL (Michael King vs Tanner Gordon), 3:10 PM ET - KC at HOU (Seth Lugo vs TBD), 7:15 PM ET - PHI at NYM (Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean), 7:15 PM ET - DET at CWS (TBD vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET - BOS at TEX (Sonny Gray vs TBD), 8:05 PM ET - MIN at LAA (Taj Bradley vs Walbert Ureña), 9:38 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Seth Lugo (RHP) *Daikin Park · 39 HR · 16.2% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.642 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.45* **Top play tonight.** Seth Lugo throws his 4-seam fastball 16% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.675 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on. At 16.2%, Alvarez carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Seth Lugo averages just 91.0 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight. ## Juan Soto, New York Mets vs Aaron Nola (RHP) *Citi Field · 25 HR · 13.8% barrel · 102.3 mph EV · 0.573 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.54* The reason Juan Soto jumps off the board: Aaron Nola can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.683 against this season. 24% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Juan Soto is going to see it. The barrel rate (13.8%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Aaron Nola averages just 91.1 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. I am backing Soto to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Brady Singer (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 28 HR · 13.0% barrel · 101.1 mph EV · 0.464 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.18* The reason Max Muncy jumps off the board: Brady Singer can be hit on his sweeper, which batters are slugging 0.526 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Max Muncy is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 13.0% barrel rate, which is above average territory. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Brady Singer's 90.7 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Muncy to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Jackson Merrill** (SD) vs Tanner Gordon: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Fernando Tatis Jr.** (SD) vs Tanner Gordon: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Jeffrey Springs: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Nelson Velázquez** (HOU) vs Seth Lugo: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Michael King: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-17-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*