Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 16, 2026 are Riley Greene (Score: 68, Riley Greene rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Max Scherzer today), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 68, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 67.5 dinger composite score against JR Ritchie today), Aaron Judge (Score: 67, Aaron Judge rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Zebby Matthews today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 16, 2026
364 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 15
Tonight's Slate
- CWS at CLE (TBD vs Parker Messick), 1:10 PM ET
- SF at STL (Anthony Molina vs Matthew Liberatore), 1:15 PM ET
- NYY at MIN (Carlos Rodón vs Zebby Matthews), 1:40 PM ET
- DET at TOR (Keider Montero vs Max Scherzer), 3:07 PM ET
- LAD at CIN (Blake Snell vs Andrew Abbott), 6:40 PM ET
- ATH at TB (Brady Basso vs Nick Martinez), 6:40 PM ET
- MIL at PIT (Logan Henderson vs Jared Jones), 6:40 PM ET
- PHI at WSH (Zack Wheeler vs Jared Simpson), 6:45 PM ET
- BAL at NYM (Chris Bassitt vs Robert Stock), 7:10 PM ET
- ATL at CHC (JR Ritchie vs Shota Imanaga), 7:40 PM ET
- BOS at TEX (Jake Bennett vs MacKenzie Gore), 8:05 PM ET
- KC at HOU (Daniel Lynch IV vs Cristian Javier), 8:10 PM ET
- SD at COL (Robbie Ray vs Mason Adams), 8:40 PM ET
- SEA at LAA (George Kirby vs Yusei Kikuchi), 9:38 PM ET
- MIA at AZ (Ryan Gusto vs Merrill Kelly), 9:40 PM ET
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers vs Max Scherzer (RHP)
Rogers Centre · 20 HR · 15.1% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.507 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.45
Top play tonight. Riley Greene's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Max Scherzer leans on a slider 18% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .683 against it.
Underneath the matchup is a 15.1% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Greene is my HR lean in this spot.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs JR Ritchie (RHP)
Wrigley Field · 42 HR · 13.3% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.509 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.40
JR Ritchie throws his 4-seam fastball 18% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.541 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Pete Crow-Armstrong should be sitting on.
His 13.3% barrel rate (above average) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Crow-Armstrong is my HR lean in this spot.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Zebby Matthews (RHP)
Target Field · 18 HR · 20.9% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.577 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.99
Zebby Matthews throws his cutter 12% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.593 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Aaron Judge should be sitting on.
The barrel rate (20.9%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. I am backing Judge to clear the fences.
Honorable Mentions
- Leo Bernal (STL) vs Anthony Molina: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) vs Max Scherzer: 16.9% barrel rate.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs Blake Snell: 4 HR in his last 7 games.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) vs Zebby Matthews: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Andrew Abbott: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides