# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 16, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Riley Greene on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-16 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-16-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 16, 2026** are Riley Greene (Score: 68, Riley Greene rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Max Scherzer today), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 68, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 67.5 dinger composite score against JR Ritchie today), Aaron Judge (Score: 67, Aaron Judge rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Zebby Matthews today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 16, 2026 364 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 15](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-15-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CWS at CLE (TBD vs Parker Messick), 1:10 PM ET - SF at STL (Anthony Molina vs Matthew Liberatore), 1:15 PM ET - NYY at MIN (Carlos Rodón vs Zebby Matthews), 1:40 PM ET - DET at TOR (Keider Montero vs Max Scherzer), 3:07 PM ET - LAD at CIN (Blake Snell vs Andrew Abbott), 6:40 PM ET - ATH at TB (Brady Basso vs Nick Martinez), 6:40 PM ET - MIL at PIT (Logan Henderson vs Jared Jones), 6:40 PM ET - PHI at WSH (Zack Wheeler vs Cade Cavalli), 6:45 PM ET - BAL at NYM (Chris Bassitt vs Robert Stock), 7:10 PM ET - ATL at CHC (JR Ritchie vs Shota Imanaga), 7:40 PM ET - BOS at TEX (Jake Bennett vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM ET - KC at HOU (Daniel Lynch IV vs Cristian Javier), 8:10 PM ET - SD at COL (Robbie Ray vs Mason Adams), 8:40 PM ET - SEA at LAA (George Kirby vs Yusei Kikuchi), 9:38 PM ET - MIA at AZ (Ryan Gusto vs Merrill Kelly), 9:40 PM ET ## Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers vs Max Scherzer (RHP) *Rogers Centre · 20 HR · 15.1% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.507 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.45* **Top play tonight.** Riley Greene's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Max Scherzer leans on a slider 18% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .683 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 15.1% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Greene is my HR lean in this spot. ## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs JR Ritchie (RHP) *Wrigley Field · 42 HR · 13.3% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.509 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.40* JR Ritchie throws his 4-seam fastball 18% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.541 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Pete Crow-Armstrong should be sitting on. His 13.3% barrel rate (above average) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Crow-Armstrong is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Zebby Matthews (RHP) *Target Field · 18 HR · 20.9% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.577 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.99* Zebby Matthews throws his cutter 12% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.593 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Aaron Judge should be sitting on. The barrel rate (20.9%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. I am backing Judge to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Leo Bernal** (STL) vs Anthony Molina: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Max Scherzer: 16.9% barrel rate. - **Elly De La Cruz** (CIN) vs Blake Snell: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Zebby Matthews: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Andrew Abbott: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-16-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*