Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 are Coby Mayo (Score: 68, Coby Mayo rates a 68.3 dinger composite score against Sean Manaea today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.5 dinger composite score against Michael Wacha today), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Score: 66, Christian Encarnacion-Strand rates a 65.7 dinger composite score against Sean Manaea today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 15, 2026
A slate of 15 games and 348 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 14
Tonight's Slate
- LAD at CIN (Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Rhett Lowder), 6:40 PM ET
- ATH at TB (Jack Perkins vs Griffin Jax), 6:40 PM ET
- CWS at CLE (Davis Martin vs Foster Griffin), 6:40 PM ET
- MIL at PIT (Jacob Misiorowski vs TBD), 6:40 PM ET
- PHI at WSH (Cristopher Sánchez vs Jackson Kent), 6:45 PM ET
- DET at TOR (Drew Anderson vs TBD), 7:07 PM ET
- BAL at NYM (Shane Baz vs Sean Manaea), 7:10 PM ET
- ATL at CHC (Martín Pérez vs Kevin Gausman), 7:40 PM ET
- NYY at MIN (Max Fried vs Bailey Ober), 7:40 PM ET
- SF at STL (Blade Tidwell vs Andre Pallante), 7:45 PM ET
- BOS at TEX (Patrick Sandoval vs Cody Bradford), 8:05 PM ET
- KC at HOU (Michael Wacha vs Hunter Brown), 8:10 PM ET
- SD at COL (Walker Buehler vs Ryan Feltner), 8:40 PM ET
- SEA at LAA (Logan Gilbert vs Ryan Johnson), 9:38 PM ET
- MIA at AZ (Janson Junk vs Michael Soroka), 9:40 PM ET
Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles vs Sean Manaea (LHP)
Citi Field · 23 HR · 13.1% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.462 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.32
Top play tonight. The reason Coby Mayo jumps off the board: Sean Manaea can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.500 against this season. 20% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Coby Mayo is going to see it.
Mayo sits at 13.1%, barrel rate that puts him comfortably in the top quartile, and that profile carries the lean. Mayo has been swinging at peak, 4 long balls in his last 7 games. Sean Manaea's 90.2 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Take Mayo to leave the yard tonight.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Michael Wacha (RHP)
Daikin Park · 38 HR · 16.0% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.640 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.07
Michael Wacha throws his cutter 15% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.556 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on.
Underneath the matchup is a 16.0% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Michael Wacha's 92.2 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Baltimore Orioles vs Sean Manaea (LHP)
Citi Field · 8 HR · 15.7% barrel · 101.3 mph EV · 0.504 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.32
Christian Encarnacion-Strand's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Sean Manaea leans on a sinker 20% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .500 against it.
The barrel rate (15.7%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Sean Manaea averages just 90.2 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Encarnacion-Strand to leave the yard tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Rhett Lowder: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 4 HR in his last 7 games.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) vs Ryan Feltner: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Leo Bernal (STL) vs Blade Tidwell: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Bailey Ober: 20.5% barrel rate.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides