# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 14, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (10 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-09-14 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-14-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, September 14, 2026** are Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 68, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 68.1 dinger composite score against AJ Smith-Shawver today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 68, Elly De La Cruz rates a 67.9 dinger composite score against Tarik Skubal today), Aaron Judge (Score: 67, Aaron Judge rates a 66.9 dinger composite score against Bailey Ober today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 14, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 10 games. 191 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 13](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-13-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - LAD at CIN (Tarik Skubal vs Nick Lodolo), 6:40 PM ET - CWS at CLE (TBD vs TBD), 6:40 PM ET - DET at TOR (Troy Melton vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM ET - BAL at NYM (Brandon Young vs Jonah Tong), 7:10 PM ET - ATL at CHC (AJ Smith-Shawver vs David Peterson), 7:40 PM ET - NYY at MIN (Will Warren vs Bailey Ober), 7:40 PM ET - SF at STL (Landen Roupp vs Quinn Mathews), 7:45 PM ET - SD at COL (Casey Mize vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 8:40 PM ET - SEA at LAA (Kade Anderson vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM ET - MIA at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET ## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP) *Wrigley Field · 41 HR · 13.1% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.500 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.22* **Top play tonight.** AJ Smith-Shawver throws his 4-seam fastball 50% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.467 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Pete Crow-Armstrong should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 13.1% barrel rate, which is above average territory. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Crow-Armstrong to go deep is the play tonight. ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Tarik Skubal (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 26 HR · 16.1% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.499 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.70* Recency bias is real, but so is 5 HR in 7 games while hitting .407. Elly De La Cruz is locked in, and Tarik Skubal is not the arm to cool him off. Cruz squares the ball up at 16.1%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. That said, Tarik Skubal's 0.70 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Cruz to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Bailey Ober (RHP) *Target Field · 17 HR · 20.5% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.585 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.09* Aaron Judge's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Bailey Ober leans on a 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .525 against it. Judge sits at 20.5%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. Bailey Ober's 88.1 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Take Judge to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Jackson Merrill** (SD) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Nick Lodolo: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Bailey Ober: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Brandon Young: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs José Soriano: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-14-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*