# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 13, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for September 13, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Elly De La Cruz leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-09-13 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-13-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 13, 2026** are Elly De La Cruz (Score: 70, Elly De La Cruz rates a 69.5 dinger composite score against Shane Drohan today), James Wood (Score: 68, James Wood rates a 67.9 dinger composite score against Grayson Rodriguez today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 66, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.2 dinger composite score against Freddy Peralta today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 13, 2026 344 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 12](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-12-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - COL at DET (Gabriel Hughes vs Jackson Jobe), 12:10 PM ET - KC at BOS (Noah Cameron vs Payton Tolle), 1:35 PM ET - LAA at WSH (Grayson Rodriguez vs Jake Irvin), 1:35 PM ET - PHI at ATL (Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes), 1:35 PM ET - NYM at NYY (Christian Scott vs Cam Schlittler), 1:35 PM ET - BAL at TOR (Trevor Rogers vs Dylan Cease), 1:37 PM ET - HOU at TB (Hayden Wesneski vs Freddy Peralta), 1:40 PM ET - LAD at MIA (Justin Wrobleski vs Eury Pérez), 1:40 PM ET - CLE at MIN (Tanner Bibee vs Joe Ryan), 2:10 PM ET - CIN at MIL (Chase Burns vs Shane Drohan), 2:10 PM ET - CWS at STL (TBD vs Michael McGreevy), 2:15 PM ET - PIT at CHC (Bubba Chandler vs Matthew Boyd), 2:20 PM ET - SEA at ATH (Bryce Miller vs Jacob Lopez), 4:05 PM ET - TEX at AZ (TBD vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 4:10 PM ET - SD at SF (Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb), 7:20 PM ET ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Shane Drohan (LHP) *American Family Field · 26 HR · 15.9% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.499 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.34* **Top play tonight.** Elly De La Cruz's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Shane Drohan leans on a sinker 21% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .598 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 15.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. 5 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Cruz is my HR lean in this spot. ## James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) *Nationals Park · 30 HR · 20.4% barrel · 106.3 mph EV · 0.574 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.88* Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of Grayson Rodriguez's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.605 SLG). James Wood has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (20.4%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Wood to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Freddy Peralta (RHP) *Tropicana Field · 38 HR · 16.0% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.642 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.01* The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Freddy Peralta can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.465 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. His 16.0% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Christian Scott: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Esmerlyn Valdez** (PIT) vs Matthew Boyd: 19.9% barrel rate. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Christian Scott: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Christian Scott: 20.9% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Bubba Chandler: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-13-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*