Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 13, 2026 are Elly De La Cruz (Score: 70, Elly De La Cruz rates a 69.5 dinger composite score against Robert Gasser today), James Wood (Score: 68, James Wood rates a 67.9 dinger composite score against Grayson Rodriguez today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 66, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.2 dinger composite score against Freddy Peralta today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 13, 2026
344 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 12
Tonight's Slate
- COL at DET (Gabriel Hughes vs Jackson Jobe), 12:10 PM ET
- KC at BOS (Noah Cameron vs Payton Tolle), 3:05 PM ET
- LAA at WSH (Grayson Rodriguez vs Riley Cornelio), 1:35 PM ET
- PHI at ATL (Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes), 1:35 PM ET
- NYM at NYY (Christian Scott vs Cam Schlittler), 1:35 PM ET
- BAL at TOR (Trevor Rogers vs Dylan Cease), 1:37 PM ET
- HOU at TB (Hayden Wesneski vs Freddy Peralta), 1:40 PM ET
- LAD at MIA (Emmet Sheehan vs Eury Pérez), 1:40 PM ET
- CLE at MIN (Tanner Bibee vs Joe Ryan), 2:10 PM ET
- CIN at MIL (Chase Burns vs Robert Gasser), 2:10 PM ET
- CWS at STL (David Sandlin vs Michael McGreevy), 2:15 PM ET
- PIT at CHC (Bubba Chandler vs Matthew Boyd), 2:20 PM ET
- SEA at ATH (Bryce Miller vs Jacob Lopez), 4:05 PM ET
- TEX at AZ (Cal Quantrill vs Eduardo Rodriguez), 4:10 PM ET
- SD at SF (Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb), 7:20 PM ET
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Robert Gasser (RHP)
American Family Field · 26 HR · 15.9% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.499 xSLG
Top play tonight. Elly De La Cruz has a 15.9% barrel rate — elite, top of the league territory — and the power profile to take advantage of any mistake over the plate.
5 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Cruz is my HR lean in this spot.
James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)
Nationals Park · 30 HR · 20.4% barrel · 106.3 mph EV · 0.574 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.88
Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of Grayson Rodriguez's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.605 SLG). James Wood has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
The barrel rate (20.4%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Wood to leave the yard tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Freddy Peralta (RHP)
Tropicana Field · 38 HR · 16.0% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.642 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.01
The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Freddy Peralta can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.465 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it.
His 16.0% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs Christian Scott: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) vs Matthew Boyd: 19.9% barrel rate.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) vs Christian Scott: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Christian Scott: 20.9% barrel rate.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs Bubba Chandler: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides