# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 12, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Spencer Jones on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-12 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-12-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, September 12, 2026** are Spencer Jones (Score: 72, Spencer Jones rates a 71.9 dinger composite score against Zac Thornton today), Elly De La Cruz (Score: 71, Elly De La Cruz rates a 70.7 dinger composite score against Kyle Harrison today), Juan Soto (Score: 67, Juan Soto rates a 66.8 dinger composite score against Gerrit Cole today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 12, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 11](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-11-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - COL at DET (Tanner Gordon vs TBD), 1:10 PM ET - NYM at NYY (Zac Thornton vs Gerrit Cole), 1:35 PM ET - PIT at CHC (Paul Skenes vs Clay Holmes), 2:20 PM ET - BAL at TOR (Kyle Bradish vs Spencer Arrighetti), 3:07 PM ET - LAA at WSH (Walbert Ureña vs Andrew Alvarez), 4:05 PM ET - SD at SF (Michael King vs Cesar Perdomo), 4:05 PM ET - KC at BOS (Randy Dobnak vs Ranger Suarez), 4:10 PM ET - CLE at MIN (Gavin Williams vs Bailey Ober), 4:10 PM ET - LAD at MIA (Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Phillips), 4:10 PM ET - HOU at TB (Peter Lambert vs Ian Seymour), 6:10 PM ET - CIN at MIL (Brady Singer vs Kyle Harrison), 7:10 PM ET - PHI at ATL (Jesús Luzardo vs Tyler Mahle), 7:15 PM ET - CWS at STL (Luis Castillo vs Kyle Leahy), 7:15 PM ET - TEX at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - SEA at ATH (Bryan Woo vs Gage Jump), 9:40 PM ET ## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Zac Thornton (LHP) *Yankee Stadium · 9 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.7 mph EV · 0.447 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.02* **Top play tonight.** Spencer Jones's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Zac Thornton leans on a cutter 31% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .485 against it. His 15.9% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Jones is at .333 over the last 7, the bat is making loud contact, the long balls usually catch up. An 90.3 mph fastball gives Jones something to drive. Jones is my HR lean in this spot. ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Kyle Harrison (LHP) *American Family Field · 26 HR · 16.0% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.502 xSLG · opp HR/9 3.19* The reason Elly De La Cruz jumps off the board: Kyle Harrison can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.477 against this season. 58% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Elly De La Cruz is going to see it. The barrel rate (16.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 5 bombs in his last 7 contests. I am backing Cruz to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Juan Soto, New York Mets vs Gerrit Cole (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 24 HR · 14.2% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.580 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.82* Lock in on the matchup math: 14% of Gerrit Cole's pitches are his curveball, and hitters are punishing it (.647 SLG). Juan Soto has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 14.2% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Soto is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs Tanner Gordon: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Zac Thornton: 21.1% barrel rate. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Ian Seymour: 16.0% barrel rate. - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Tanner Gordon: 17.9% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Paul Skenes: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-12-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*