# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 11, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for September 11, 2026. Elly De La Cruz leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-09-11 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-11-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 11, 2026** are Elly De La Cruz (Score: 70, Elly De La Cruz rates a 69.7 dinger composite score against Shane Drohan today), Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 68, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 67.5 dinger composite score against Shota Imanaga today), Aaron Judge (Score: 65, Aaron Judge rates a 65.4 dinger composite score against Nolan McLean today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 11, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 319 candidates, 15 games, and here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 10](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-10-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PIT at CHC (Braxton Ashcraft vs Shota Imanaga), 2:20 PM ET - COL at DET (Mason Adams vs Framber Valdez), 6:40 PM ET - LAA at WSH (Yusei Kikuchi vs Cade Cavalli), 6:45 PM ET - NYM at NYY (Nolan McLean vs Carlos Rodón), 7:05 PM ET - BAL at TOR (Chris Bassitt vs Max Scherzer), 7:07 PM ET - KC at BOS (Seth Lugo vs Sonny Gray), 7:10 PM ET - HOU at TB (Ethan Pecko vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - LAD at MIA (Blake Snell vs Ryan Gusto), 7:10 PM ET - PHI at ATL (Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM ET - CIN at MIL (Andrew Abbott vs Shane Drohan), 7:45 PM ET - CLE at MIN (Parker Messick vs Taj Bradley), 8:10 PM ET - CWS at STL (TBD vs Matthew Liberatore), 8:15 PM ET - SEA at ATH (George Kirby vs Jeffrey Springs), 9:40 PM ET - TEX at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - SD at SF (Robbie Ray vs Anthony Molina), 10:15 PM ET ## Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Shane Drohan (LHP) *American Family Field · 26 HR · 16.0% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.502 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.34* **Top play tonight.** Shane Drohan throws his sinker 21% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.598 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Elly De La Cruz should be sitting on. His 16.0% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 5 HR over his last 7 games. Cruz to go deep is the play tonight. ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Shota Imanaga (LHP) *Wrigley Field · 17 HR · 20.0% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.444 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.25* Lock in on the matchup math: 16% of Shota Imanaga's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.580 SLG). Esmerlyn Valdez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (20.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Shota Imanaga averages just 91.4 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Valdez to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Nolan McLean (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 17 HR · 21.1% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.591 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.50* The reason Aaron Judge jumps off the board: Nolan McLean can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.596 against this season. 11% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Aaron Judge is going to see it. Underneath the matchup is a 21.1% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. One reason to size down: Nolan McLean has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.50 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Judge to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Riley Greene** (DET) vs Mason Adams: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 20.5% barrel rate. - **Eduardo Valencia** (DET) vs Mason Adams: 17.9% barrel rate. - **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Shota Imanaga: 16.7% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-11-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*