Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, September 11, 2026 are Elly De La Cruz (Score: 70, Elly De La Cruz rates a 69.7 dinger composite score against Shane Drohan today), Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 68, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 67.5 dinger composite score against Shota Imanaga today), Aaron Judge (Score: 65, Aaron Judge rates a 65.4 dinger composite score against Nolan McLean today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 11, 2026
Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 319 candidates, 15 games, and here are the plays.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 10
Tonight's Slate
- PIT at CHC (Braxton Ashcraft vs Shota Imanaga), 2:20 PM ET
- COL at DET (Mason Adams vs Framber Valdez), 6:40 PM ET
- LAA at WSH (Yusei Kikuchi vs Cade Cavalli), 6:45 PM ET
- NYM at NYY (Nolan McLean vs Carlos Rodón), 7:05 PM ET
- BAL at TOR (Chris Bassitt vs Max Scherzer), 7:07 PM ET
- KC at BOS (Seth Lugo vs Sonny Gray), 7:10 PM ET
- HOU at TB (Ethan Pecko vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET
- LAD at MIA (Blake Snell vs Ryan Gusto), 7:10 PM ET
- PHI at ATL (Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM ET
- CIN at MIL (Andrew Abbott vs Shane Drohan), 7:45 PM ET
- CLE at MIN (Parker Messick vs Taj Bradley), 8:10 PM ET
- CWS at STL (TBD vs Matthew Liberatore), 8:15 PM ET
- SEA at ATH (George Kirby vs Jeffrey Springs), 9:40 PM ET
- TEX at AZ (TBD vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET
- SD at SF (Robbie Ray vs Anthony Molina), 10:15 PM ET
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs Shane Drohan (LHP)
American Family Field · 26 HR · 16.0% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.502 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.34
Top play tonight. Shane Drohan throws his sinker 21% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.598 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Elly De La Cruz should be sitting on.
His 16.0% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way, 5 HR over his last 7 games. Cruz to go deep is the play tonight.
Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Wrigley Field · 17 HR · 20.0% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.444 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.25
Lock in on the matchup math: 16% of Shota Imanaga's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.580 SLG). Esmerlyn Valdez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
The barrel rate (20.0%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Shota Imanaga averages just 91.4 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Valdez to leave the yard tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Nolan McLean (RHP)
Yankee Stadium · 17 HR · 21.1% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.591 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.50
The reason Aaron Judge jumps off the board: Nolan McLean can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.596 against this season. 11% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Aaron Judge is going to see it.
Underneath the matchup is a 21.1% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. One reason to size down: Nolan McLean has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.50 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Judge to go deep is the play tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Riley Greene (DET) vs Mason Adams: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- James Wood (WSH) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 20.5% barrel rate.
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) vs Mason Adams: 17.9% barrel rate.
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs Shota Imanaga: 16.7% barrel rate.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides