# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 10, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (5 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabil **Date:** 2026-09-10 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 10, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 71, Yordan Alvarez rates a 71.3 dinger composite score against Zack Wheeler today), Aaron Judge (Score: 69, Aaron Judge rates a 68.7 dinger composite score against Ryan Feltner today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 68, Kyle Schwarber rates a 68.2 dinger composite score against Cristian Javier today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 10, 2026 113 power bats scored across 5 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for September 9](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-9-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB at ATL (Nick Martinez vs Martín Pérez), 12:15 PM ET - HOU at PHI (Cristian Javier vs Zack Wheeler), 1:05 PM ET - TEX at SEA (Jacob deGrom vs Logan Gilbert), 4:10 PM ET - COL at NYY (Ryan Feltner vs Max Fried), 7:05 PM ET - PIT at CWS (Jared Jones vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 38 HR · 16.2% barrel · 105.0 mph EV · 0.648 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.92* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 10% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.490 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez squares the ball up at 16.2%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences. ## Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Ryan Feltner (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 17 HR · 21.5% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.593 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.97* Lock in on the matchup math: 23% of Ryan Feltner's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.617 SLG). Aaron Judge has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (21.5%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Judge to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Cristian Javier (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 43 HR · 16.9% barrel · 103.5 mph EV · 0.505 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.79* Cristian Javier throws his 4-seam fastball 50% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.500 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Kyle Schwarber should be sitting on. Schwarber squares the ball up at 16.9%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. I am backing Schwarber to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Cristian Javier: Cristian Javier giving up 1.79 HR/9. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Ryan Feltner: 14.3% barrel rate. - **Corey Seager** (TEX) vs Logan Gilbert: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Spencer Jones** (NYY) vs Ryan Feltner: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Jared Jones: 18.9% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-10-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*