Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 10, 2026 are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 71, Yordan Alvarez rates a 71.3 dinger composite score against Zack Wheeler today), Aaron Judge (Score: 69, Aaron Judge rates a 68.7 dinger composite score against Ryan Feltner today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 68, Kyle Schwarber rates a 68.2 dinger composite score against Cristian Javier today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 10, 2026
113 power bats scored across 5 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 9
Tonight's Slate
- TB at ATL (Nick Martinez vs Martín Pérez), 12:15 PM ET
- HOU at PHI (Cristian Javier vs Zack Wheeler), 1:05 PM ET
- TEX at SEA (Jacob deGrom vs Logan Gilbert), 4:10 PM ET
- COL at NYY (Ryan Feltner vs Max Fried), 7:05 PM ET
- PIT at CWS (Jared Jones vs TBD), 7:40 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Citizens Bank Park · 38 HR · 16.2% barrel · 105.0 mph EV · 0.648 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.92
Top play tonight. Lock in on the matchup math: 10% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.490 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
Alvarez squares the ball up at 16.2%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Yankee Stadium · 17 HR · 21.5% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.593 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.97
Lock in on the matchup math: 23% of Ryan Feltner's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.617 SLG). Aaron Judge has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.
The barrel rate (21.5%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Take Judge to leave the yard tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Cristian Javier (RHP)
Citizens Bank Park · 43 HR · 16.9% barrel · 103.5 mph EV · 0.505 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.79
Cristian Javier throws his 4-seam fastball 50% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.500 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Kyle Schwarber should be sitting on.
Schwarber squares the ball up at 16.9%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. He is also trending the right way, 3 HR over his last 7 games. I am backing Schwarber to clear the fences.
Honorable Mentions
- Bryce Harper (PHI) vs Cristian Javier: Cristian Javier giving up 1.79 HR/9.
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs Ryan Feltner: 14.3% barrel rate.
- Corey Seager (TEX) vs Logan Gilbert: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Spencer Jones (NYY) vs Ryan Feltner: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs Jared Jones: 18.9% barrel rate.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides