# MLB Dinger Picks Today (September 1, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Joshua Báez on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-09-01 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-sep-1-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, September 1, 2026** are Joshua Báez (Score: 70, Joshua Báez rates a 70.2 dinger composite score against Eric Lauer today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.5 dinger composite score against Sean Burke today), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Score: 65, Pete Crow-Armstrong rates a 64.5 dinger composite score against Robert Gasser today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: September 1, 2026 329 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 31](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-31-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SD at CIN (Randy Vásquez vs Nick Lodolo), 6:40 PM ET - SF at PIT (Logan Webb vs Paul Skenes), 6:40 PM ET - NYM at TB (Sean Manaea vs Freddy Peralta), 6:40 PM ET - TOR at CLE (Spencer Arrighetti vs Gavin Williams), 6:40 PM ET - SEA at BOS (Bryan Woo vs Sonny Gray), 6:45 PM ET - ATL at WSH (AJ Smith-Shawver vs Jake Irvin), 6:45 PM ET - DET at MIN (Troy Melton vs Connor Prielipp), 7:40 PM ET - MIA at KC (Tyler Phillips vs Randy Dobnak), 7:40 PM ET - MIL at CHC (Robert Gasser vs Matthew Boyd), 7:40 PM ET - ATH at TEX (J.T. Ginn vs MacKenzie Gore), 8:05 PM ET - CWS at HOU (Sean Burke vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - BAL at COL (Trevor Rogers vs Gabriel Hughes), 8:40 PM ET - NYY at LAA (Gerrit Cole vs Grayson Rodriguez), 9:38 PM ET - PHI at AZ (Jesús Luzardo vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - STL at LAD (Michael McGreevy vs Eric Lauer), 10:10 PM ET ## Joshua Báez, St. Louis Cardinals vs Eric Lauer (LHP) *UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 5 HR · 15.2% barrel · 102.6 mph EV · 0.458 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.56* **Top play tonight.** The reason Joshua Báez jumps off the board: Eric Lauer can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.535 against this season. 42% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Joshua Báez is going to see it. The barrel rate (15.2%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Eric Lauer averages just 89.8 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Báez to leave the yard tonight. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Sean Burke (RHP) *Daikin Park · 37 HR · 16.8% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.663 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.37* Lock in on the matchup math: 17% of Sean Burke's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.480 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez squares the ball up at 16.8%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Take Alvarez to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs vs Robert Gasser (LHP) *Wrigley Field · 38 HR · 13.2% barrel · 102.1 mph EV · 0.496 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.63* Lock in on the matchup math: 26% of Robert Gasser's pitches are his sweeper, and hitters are punishing it (.488 SLG). Pete Crow-Armstrong has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 13.2% barrel rate (above average) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 6 bombs in his last 7 contests. An 91.3 mph fastball gives Crow-Armstrong something to drive. Crow-Armstrong is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Fernando Tatis Jr.** (SD) vs Nick Lodolo: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Eric Lauer: 13.5% barrel rate. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Trevor Rogers: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Freddy Peralta: 14.3% barrel rate. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Gabriel Hughes: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-sep-1-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*