# MLB Dinger Picks Today (October 7, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 4 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Ben Rice on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-10-07 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-oct-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, October 7, 2026** are Ben Rice (Score: 81, Ben Rice rates a 81.2 dinger composite score against Nick Martinez today), Giancarlo Stanton (Score: 73, Giancarlo Stanton rates a 72.9 dinger composite score against Nick Martinez today), Spencer Jones (Score: 71, Spencer Jones rates a 70.5 dinger composite score against Nick Martinez today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: October 7, 2026 4 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for October 6](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-oct-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CLE at CWS (TBD vs TBD), 4:00 PM ET - LAD at ATL (TBD vs TBD), 6:00 PM ET - TB at NYY (Nick Martinez vs Max Fried), 8:00 PM ET - MIL at SD (TBD vs TBD), 10:00 PM ET ## Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Nick Martinez (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 41 HR · 14.3% barrel · 101.7 mph EV · 0.511 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48* **Top play tonight.** The reason Ben Rice jumps off the board: Nick Martinez can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.494 against this season. 13% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Ben Rice is going to see it. The barrel rate (14.3%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. 4 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Nick Martinez averages just 91.4 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Rice to leave the yard tonight. ## Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees vs Nick Martinez (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 3 HR · 18.0% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.466 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48* Giancarlo Stanton's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Nick Martinez leans on a 4-seam fastball 13% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .494 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 18.0% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Nick Martinez's 91.4 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Stanton to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Nick Martinez (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 11 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.455 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48* Lock in on the matchup math: 13% of Nick Martinez's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.494 SLG). Spencer Jones has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Underneath the matchup is a 15.9% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. An 91.4 mph fastball gives Jones something to drive. Jones is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Nick Martinez: 12.2% barrel rate. - **Austin Wells** (NYY) vs Nick Martinez: Nick Martinez giving up 1.48 HR/9. - **Heliot Ramos** (NYY) vs Nick Martinez: 13.8% barrel rate. - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Max Fried: 13.1% barrel rate. - **Ryan McMahon** (NYY) vs Nick Martinez: Nick Martinez giving up 1.48 HR/9. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-oct-7-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*