Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, October 4, 2026 are Fernando Tatis Jr. (Score: 75, Fernando Tatis Jr. rates a 74.5 dinger composite score against Logan Henderson today), Jackson Merrill (Score: 71, Jackson Merrill rates a 71.0 dinger composite score against Logan Henderson today), Jake Bauers (Score: 66, Jake Bauers rates a 66.4 dinger composite score against Michael King today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: October 4, 2026
27 batters, 2 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for October 3
Tonight's Slate
- SD at MIL (Michael King vs Logan Henderson), 4:00 PM ET
- ATL at LAD (TBD vs TBD), 8:00 PM ET
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs Logan Henderson (RHP)
American Family Field · 25 HR · 12.7% barrel · 104.7 mph EV · 0.500 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.49
Top play tonight. Logan Henderson throws his cutter 15% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.509 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Fernando Tatis Jr. should be sitting on.
His 12.7% barrel rate (above average) backs the take. Jr. is at .385 over the last 7, the bat is making loud contact, the long balls usually catch up. An 91.8 mph fastball gives Jr. something to drive. Jr. to go deep is the play tonight.
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres vs Logan Henderson (RHP)
American Family Field · 26 HR · 12.4% barrel · 101.4 mph EV · 0.491 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.49
Jackson Merrill's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Logan Henderson leans on a cutter 15% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .509 against it.
At 12.4%, Merrill carries above average barrel rate, well past the league mean. Logan Henderson averages just 91.8 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Merrill to go deep is the play tonight.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Jake Bauers, Milwaukee Brewers vs Michael King (RHP)
American Family Field · 26 HR · 14.0% barrel · 103.2 mph EV · 0.467 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.88
Michael King throws his sinker 28% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.454 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Jake Bauers should be sitting on.
Bauers squares the ball up at 14.0%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. I am backing Bauers to clear the fences.
Honorable Mentions
- Manny Machado (SD) vs Logan Henderson: 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) vs Michael King: 12.3% barrel rate.
- Ty France (SD) vs Logan Henderson: Logan Henderson giving up 1.49 HR/9.
- Brice Turang (MIL) vs Michael King: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Gavin Sheets (SD) vs Logan Henderson: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides