# MLB Dinger Picks Today (October 3, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 4 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Ben Rice on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-10-03 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-oct-3-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, October 3, 2026** are Ben Rice (Score: 68, Ben Rice rates a 68.1 dinger composite score against Drew Rasmussen today), Junior Caminero (Score: 65, Junior Caminero rates a 64.7 dinger composite score against Gerrit Cole today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 63, Munetaka Murakami rates a 62.5 dinger composite score against Parker Messick today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: October 3, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 4 games. 55 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** MLB HR Picks for October 2 ## Tonight's Slate - CWS at CLE (TBD vs Parker Messick), 1:00 PM ET - ATL at LAD (TBD vs TBD), 4:00 PM ET - NYY at TB (Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen), 6:30 PM ET - SD at MIL (TBD vs Jacob Misiorowski), 8:30 PM ET ## Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP) *Tropicana Field · 41 HR · 14.3% barrel · 101.7 mph EV · 0.511 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.44* **Top play tonight.** Ben Rice has gone deep 4 times in his last 7 games while hitting .444. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks. Rice sits at 14.3%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. That said, Drew Rasmussen's 0.44 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Rice to leave the yard tonight. ## Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays vs Gerrit Cole (RHP) *Tropicana Field · 42 HR · 13.1% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.499 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.11* Gerrit Cole throws his curveball 14% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.540 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Junior Caminero should be sitting on. At 13.1%, Caminero carries barrel rate that ranks well above the league baseline. Caminero is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Parker Messick (LHP) *Progressive Field · 35 HR · 20.5% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.469 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.68* Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Munetaka Murakami's elite 20.5% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 104.4 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Caveat: the same handed split (.376 SLG vs LHP) is not his best look. The power profile carries the day, but it is a real wrinkle. Murakami is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Randal Grichuk** (CWS) vs Parker Messick: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Giancarlo Stanton** (NYY) vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Spencer Jones** (NYY) vs Drew Rasmussen: 15.9% barrel rate. - **Victor Mesa Jr.** (TB) vs Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole giving up 2.11 HR/9. - **Jonathan Aranda** (TB) vs Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole giving up 2.11 HR/9. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-oct-3-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*