Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, October 3, 2026 are Ben Rice (Score: 68, Ben Rice rates a 68.1 dinger composite score against Drew Rasmussen today), Junior Caminero (Score: 65, Junior Caminero rates a 64.7 dinger composite score against Gerrit Cole today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 63, Munetaka Murakami rates a 62.5 dinger composite score against Parker Messick today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: October 3, 2026
Best HR plays from tonight's 4 games. 55 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for October 2
Tonight's Slate
- CWS at CLE (TBD vs Parker Messick), 1:00 PM ET
- ATL at LAD (TBD vs TBD), 4:00 PM ET
- NYY at TB (Gerrit Cole vs Drew Rasmussen), 6:30 PM ET
- SD at MIL (TBD vs Jacob Misiorowski), 8:30 PM ET
Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Tropicana Field · 41 HR · 14.3% barrel · 101.7 mph EV · 0.511 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.44
Top play tonight. Ben Rice has gone deep 4 times in his last 7 games while hitting .444. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks.
Rice sits at 14.3%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. That said, Drew Rasmussen's 0.44 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Rice to leave the yard tonight.
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays vs Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Tropicana Field · 42 HR · 13.1% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.499 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.11
Gerrit Cole throws his curveball 14% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.540 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Junior Caminero should be sitting on.
At 13.1%, Caminero carries barrel rate that ranks well above the league baseline. Caminero is my HR lean in this spot.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Parker Messick (LHP)
Progressive Field · 35 HR · 20.5% barrel · 104.4 mph EV · 0.469 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.68
Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Munetaka Murakami's elite 20.5% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 104.4 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious.
He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Caveat: the same handed split (.376 SLG vs LHP) is not his best look. The power profile carries the day, but it is a real wrinkle. Murakami is my HR lean in this spot.
Honorable Mentions
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) vs Parker Messick: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Spencer Jones (NYY) vs Drew Rasmussen: 15.9% barrel rate.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) vs Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole giving up 2.11 HR/9.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) vs Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole giving up 2.11 HR/9.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides