# MLB Dinger Picks Today (October 24, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for October 24, 2026. Junior Caminero leads the board across 1 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-10-24 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-oct-24-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, October 24, 2026** are Junior Caminero (Score: 71, Junior Caminero rates a 70.6 dinger composite score against Logan Henderson today), Jake Bauers (Score: 63, Jake Bauers rates a 62.8 dinger composite score against Drew Rasmussen today), Garrett Mitchell (Score: 60, Garrett Mitchell rates a 60.3 dinger composite score against Drew Rasmussen today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: October 24, 2026 26 batters, 1 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for October 23](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-oct-23-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB at MIL (Drew Rasmussen vs Logan Henderson), 8:00 PM ET ## Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays vs Logan Henderson (RHP) *American Family Field · 42 HR · 13.1% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.499 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.77* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 15% of Logan Henderson's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.519 SLG). Junior Caminero has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (13.1%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Logan Henderson averages just 91.8 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. That said, Logan Henderson's 0.77 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. I am backing Caminero to clear the fences. ## Jake Bauers, Milwaukee Brewers vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP) *American Family Field · 26 HR · 14.0% barrel · 103.2 mph EV · 0.467 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.78* When Jake Bauers connects, the average exit velocity is 103.2 mph and his elite 14.0% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) means he is squaring balls up at a top of the league rate. Drew Rasmussen is the matchup to take advantage. That said, Drew Rasmussen's 0.78 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Bauers to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP) *American Family Field · 11 HR · 11.7% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.447 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.78* Garrett Mitchell's strong 11.7% barrel rate (above average) is one of the rarest profiles in the league, when he squares one up, it leaves at 104.8 mph on average. Drop that into American Family Field against Drew Rasmussen and the math works. Mitchell has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. One reason to size down: Drew Rasmussen has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.78 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. I am backing Mitchell to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Victor Mesa Jr.** (TB) vs Logan Henderson: 14 on the season. - **Jackson Chourio** (MIL) vs Drew Rasmussen: 12.3% barrel rate. - **Yandy Díaz** (TB) vs Logan Henderson: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jonathan Aranda** (TB) vs Logan Henderson: 22 on the season. - **Brice Turang** (MIL) vs Drew Rasmussen: 21 on the season. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-oct-24-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*