Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, October 1, 2026 are Spencer Jones (Score: 70, Spencer Jones rates a 69.9 dinger composite score against Ranger Suarez today), Ben Rice (Score: 65, Ben Rice rates a 64.5 dinger composite score against Ranger Suarez today), Willson Contreras (Score: 64, Willson Contreras rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Gerrit Cole today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily.
MLB Dinger Picks Today: October 1, 2026
30 power bats scored across 4 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets.
Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.
Yesterday's dinger picks: MLB HR Picks for September 30
Tonight's Slate
- PHI at ATL (TBD vs TBD), 2:00 PM ET
- CWS at HOU (TBD vs TBD), 5:00 PM ET
- BOS at NYY (Ranger Suarez vs Gerrit Cole), 8:00 PM ET
- CHC at SD (TBD vs TBD), 10:00 PM ET
Spencer Jones, New York Yankees vs Ranger Suarez (LHP)
Yankee Stadium · 11 HR · 15.9% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.455 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.78
Top play tonight. Spencer Jones's elite 15.9% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) is one of the rarest profiles in the league, when he squares one up, it leaves at 104.2 mph on average. Drop that into Yankee Stadium against Ranger Suarez and the math works.
Ranger Suarez's 90.1 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. One reason to size down: Ranger Suarez has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.78 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Jones to go deep is the play tonight.
Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Ranger Suarez (LHP)
Yankee Stadium · 41 HR · 14.3% barrel · 101.7 mph EV · 0.511 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.78
Ben Rice has gone deep 4 times in his last 7 games while hitting .407. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks.
The barrel rate (14.3%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Ranger Suarez averages just 90.1 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. That said, Ranger Suarez's 0.78 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. I am backing Rice to clear the fences.
Want the full board? See all of today's plays on Top Plays, or dive deeper on the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard.
Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox vs Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Yankee Stadium · 27 HR · 13.3% barrel · 102.4 mph EV · 0.484 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.11
The reason Willson Contreras jumps off the board: Gerrit Cole can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.540 against this season. 14% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Willson Contreras is going to see it.
At 13.3%, Contreras carries above average barrel rate, well past the league mean. Contreras to go deep is the play tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) vs Gerrit Cole: 12.5% barrel rate.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) vs Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole giving up 2.11 HR/9.
- Heliot Ramos (NYY) vs Ranger Suarez: 13.8% barrel rate.
- Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) vs Ranger Suarez: 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- Adley Rutschman (BOS) vs Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole giving up 2.11 HR/9.
Related Guides
Before You Lock
Check the Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline.
Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the Due for a Homer dashboard.
More from HeatCheck HQ:
- Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard: Statcast power profiles for every batter
- NRFI Picks Today: no run first inning best bets
- Hot Hitters: batters on active hitting streaks
- NRFI Strategy Guide: NRFI methodology breakdown
Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at heatcheckhq.io.
Related Resources
- Parent hub: MLB Props Hub
- Daily stream: MLB Dinger of the Day
- Author: HeatCheck HQ
- Browse all posts: Sports Betting Insights & Guides