# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 9, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Aaron Judge tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-05-09 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-9-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, May 9, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 64 — Aaron Judge rates a 63.7 dinger composite score against Kyle Harrison today), Ben Rice (Score: 63 — Ben Rice rates a 63.0 dinger composite score against Kyle Harrison today), Matt Olson (Score: 60 — Matt Olson rates a 59.8 dinger composite score against Blake Snell today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 9, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 15-game slate. 280 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 8](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-8-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - LAA @ TOR (Jack Kochanowicz vs Trey Yesavage) - 3:07 PM ET - ATH @ BAL (Aaron Civale vs Shane Baz) - 4:05 PM ET - HOU @ CIN (Spencer Arrighetti vs Chase Burns) - 4:10 PM ET - TB @ BOS (Nick Martinez vs Payton Tolle) - 4:10 PM ET - WSH @ MIA (Zack Littell vs Janson Junk) - 4:10 PM ET - COL @ PHI (Kyle Freeland vs Aaron Nola) - 6:05 PM ET - MIN @ CLE (Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee) - 6:10 PM ET - CHC @ TEX (Edward Cabrera vs Jack Leiter) - 7:05 PM ET - DET @ KC (Burch Smith vs Michael Wacha) - 7:10 PM ET - SEA @ CWS (Luis Castillo vs Anthony Kay) - 7:10 PM ET - NYY @ MIL (Cam Schlittler vs Kyle Harrison) - 7:10 PM ET - NYM @ AZ (Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly) - 7:15 PM ET - STL @ SD (Dustin May vs Randy Vásquez) - 7:15 PM ET - PIT @ SF (Braxton Ashcraft vs Landen Roupp) - 9:05 PM ET - ATL @ LAD (Spencer Strider vs Blake Snell) - 9:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Kyle Harrison (LHP) *American Family Field · 15 HR · 26.7% barrel · 106.2 mph EV · 0.683 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.37* **Top play tonight.** Aaron Judge is a righty who eats left-handers — .632 slugging in that split with 5 home runs. Kyle Harrison fits the script. A 26.7% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. He is also trending the right way — 3 HR over his last 7 games. That said — Kyle Harrison's 0.37 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. ## Pick 2: Ben Rice — NYY vs Kyle Harrison (LHP) *American Family Field · 12 HR · 20.5% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.643 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.37* Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Ben Rice's elite 20.5% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 103.8 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. One reason to size down: Kyle Harrison has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.37 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Matt Olson — ATL vs Blake Snell (LHP) *UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 13 HR · 20.2% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.632 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.20* Recency bias is real, but so is 4 HR in 7 games. Matt Olson is locked in, and Blake Snell is not the arm to cool him off. Underneath the matchup is a 20.2% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. ## Honorable Mentions - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Merrill Kelly — 22.4% barrel rate. - **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Shane Baz — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Trey Yesavage — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Aaron Nola — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Luis Castillo — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-9-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*