# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 8, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets

> MLB HR picks for May 8, 2026 - Matt Olson leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-05-08  
**Author:** Jason Bowman  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-8-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, May 8, 2026** are Matt Olson (Score: 72 — Matt Olson rates a 72.3 dinger composite score against Emmet Sheehan today), Aaron Judge (Score: 72 — Aaron Judge rates a 71.6 dinger composite score against Jacob Misiorowski today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 69 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 68.6 dinger composite score against Emerson Hancock today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 8, 2026

15-game slate, 279 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out.

> [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 7](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-7-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- HOU @ CIN (Mike Burrows vs Nick Lodolo) - 6:10 PM ET
- COL @ PHI (Chase Dollander vs Jesús Luzardo) - 6:40 PM ET
- ATH @ BAL (Jacob Lopez vs Kyle Bradish) - 7:05 PM ET
- LAA @ TOR (Reid Detmers vs Dylan Cease) - 7:07 PM ET
- TB @ BOS (Jesse Scholtens vs Connelly Early) - 7:10 PM ET
- WSH @ MIA (Foster Griffin vs Robby Snelling) - 7:10 PM ET
- MIN @ CLE (Connor Prielipp vs Parker Messick) - 7:15 PM ET
- DET @ KC (Keider Montero vs Kris Bubic) - 7:40 PM ET
- SEA @ CWS (Emerson Hancock vs Sean Burke) - 7:40 PM ET
- NYY @ MIL (Max Fried vs Jacob Misiorowski) - 7:40 PM ET
- CHC @ TEX (Ben Brown vs Kumar Rocker) - 8:05 PM ET
- NYM @ AZ (Nolan McLean vs Ryne Nelson) - 9:40 PM ET
- STL @ SD (Michael McGreevy vs Griffin Canning) - 9:45 PM ET
- ATL @ LAD (Chris Sale vs Emmet Sheehan) - 10:10 PM ET
- PIT @ SF (Carmen Mlodzinski vs Robbie Ray) - 10:15 PM ET

## Pick 1: Matt Olson — ATL vs Emmet Sheehan (RHP)

*UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 13 HR · 20.2% barrel · 105.2 mph EV · 0.632 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.52*

**Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 44% of Emmet Sheehan's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.882 SLG). Matt Olson has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir.

The barrel rate (20.2%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. Olson has been swinging at peak — 4 long balls in his last 7 games.

## Pick 2: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)

*American Family Field · 15 HR · 27.9% barrel · 106.0 mph EV · 0.696 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.57*

Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Aaron Judge's elite 27.9% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 106.0 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious.

The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. One reason to size down: Jacob Misiorowski has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.57 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats).

## Pick 3: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Emerson Hancock (RHP)

*Rate Field · 14 HR · 22.1% barrel · 105.9 mph EV · 0.568 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.92*

Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Emerson Hancock leans on a 4-seam fastball 38% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .529 against it.

Murakami squares the ball up at 22.1% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. One small concern: 47°F at first pitch will eat a few feet off any deep drive.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Ryne Nelson — 23.8% barrel rate.
- **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Kyle Bradish — 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Jacob Misiorowski — 3 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Griffin Canning — 2 HR in his last 7 games.
- **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Nick Lodolo — 18.2% barrel rate.

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-8-2026) - no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*