# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 7, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 10-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-05-07 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-7-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, May 7, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 70 — Aaron Judge rates a 69.6 dinger composite score against MacKenzie Gore today), Ben Rice (Score: 68 — Ben Rice rates a 68.0 dinger composite score against MacKenzie Gore today), Mickey Moniak (Score: 67 — Mickey Moniak rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Christian Scott today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 7, 2026 191 power bats scored across 10 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 6](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-6-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TEX @ NYY (MacKenzie Gore vs Paul Blackburn) - 12:35 PM ET - MIN @ WSH (Simeon Woods Richardson vs Jake Irvin) - 1:05 PM ET - CLE @ KC (Slade Cecconi vs Seth Lugo) - 2:10 PM ET - CIN @ CHC (Rhett Lowder vs Shota Imanaga) - 2:20 PM ET - NYM @ COL (Christian Scott vs Jose Quintana) - 3:10 PM ET - PIT @ AZ (Mitch Keller vs Zac Gallen) - 3:40 PM ET - ATH @ PHI (J.T. Ginn vs Andrew Painter) - 6:40 PM ET - BAL @ MIA (Cade Povich vs Max Meyer) - 6:40 PM ET - TB @ BOS (Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennett) - 7:10 PM ET - STL @ SD (Matthew Liberatore vs Michael King) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Aaron Judge — NYY vs MacKenzie Gore (LHP) *Yankee Stadium · 14 HR · 27.4% barrel · 105.6 mph EV · 0.680 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.61* **Top play tonight.** MacKenzie Gore is giving up 1.61 HR/9 — bottom-tier among qualified starters and well above the 1.2 league average. Aaron Judge, with 14 home runs already on the year, is exactly the kind of bat that takes advantage. Judge has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. ## Pick 2: Ben Rice — NYY vs MacKenzie Gore (LHP) *Yankee Stadium · 12 HR · 20.5% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.643 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.61* MacKenzie Gore is giving up 1.61 HR/9 — bottom-tier among qualified starters and well above the 1.2 league average. Ben Rice, with 12 home runs already on the year, is exactly the kind of bat that takes advantage. Rice has been swinging at peak — 3 long balls in his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Mickey Moniak — COL vs Christian Scott (RHP) *Coors Field · 11 HR · 14.5% barrel · 100.4 mph EV · 0.536 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.48* Mickey Moniak is a lefty who eats right-handers — .810 slugging in that split with 9 home runs. Christian Scott fits the script. Underneath the matchup is a 14.5% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. He is also trending the right way — 3 HR over his last 7 games. Christian Scott's 1.48 HR/9 number is well above the 1.2 league baseline. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. ## Honorable Mentions - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Jose Quintana — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Simeon Woods Richardson — 28.0% barrel rate. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Christian Scott — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Jake Irvin — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Michael King — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-7-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*