# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 6, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for May 6, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Aaron Judge leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-06 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-6-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, May 6, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 67 — Aaron Judge rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Nathan Eovaldi today), Ben Rice (Score: 64 — Ben Rice rates a 64.1 dinger composite score against Nathan Eovaldi today), Byron Buxton (Score: 64 — Byron Buxton rates a 63.7 dinger composite score against Miles Mikolas today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 6, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 12 factors. 272 candidates, 15 games - here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 5](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-5-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TOR @ TB (Patrick Corbin vs Shane McClanahan) - 1:10 PM ET - MIL @ STL (Brandon Sproat vs Andre Pallante) - 1:15 PM ET - LAD @ HOU (Tyler Glasnow vs Lance McCullers Jr.) - 2:10 PM ET - SD @ SF (Matt Waldron vs Adrian Houser) - 3:45 PM ET - CWS @ LAA (Noah Schultz vs Walbert Ureña) - 4:07 PM ET - ATL @ SEA (Martín Pérez vs Bryan Woo) - 4:10 PM ET - BOS @ DET (Sonny Gray vs Jack Flaherty) - 6:40 PM ET - ATH @ PHI (Jeffrey Springs vs Zack Wheeler) - 6:40 PM ET - BAL @ MIA (Brandon Young vs Eury Pérez) - 6:40 PM ET - MIN @ WSH (Bailey Ober vs Miles Mikolas) - 6:45 PM ET - TEX @ NYY (Nathan Eovaldi vs Will Warren) - 7:05 PM ET - CIN @ CHC (Brady Singer vs Colin Rea) - 7:40 PM ET - CLE @ KC (Joey Cantillo vs Cole Ragans) - 7:40 PM ET - NYM @ COL (Freddy Peralta vs Michael Lorenzen) - 9:20 PM ET - PIT @ AZ (Paul Skenes vs Michael Soroka) - 9:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 14 HR · 27.7% barrel · 105.6 mph EV · 0.696 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.07* **Top play tonight.** Aaron Judge's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Nathan Eovaldi leans on a 4-seam fastball 12% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .1125 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 27.7% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. ## Pick 2: Ben Rice — NYY vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 12 HR · 20.5% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.643 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.07* Nathan Eovaldi throws his 4-seam fastball 12% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 1.125 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Ben Rice should be sitting on. Rice's 20.5% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Miles Mikolas (RHP) *Nationals Park · 10 HR · 18.4% barrel · 100.5 mph EV · 0.455 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.66* Lock in on the matchup math: 12% of Miles Mikolas's pitches are his changeup, and hitters are punishing it (.818 SLG). Byron Buxton has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Buxton's 18.4% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Hot streak is real: 5 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. ## Honorable Mentions - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Bryan Woo — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Freddy Peralta — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Michael Lorenzen — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Brandon Sproat — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Tyler Glasnow — 17.9% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-6-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*