# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 5, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Aaron Judge tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-05-05 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-5-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, May 5, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 65 — Aaron Judge rates a 64.9 dinger composite score against Jacob deGrom today), Jordan Walker (Score: 64 — Jordan Walker rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Brandon Sproat today), Juan Soto (Score: 62 — Juan Soto rates a 62.4 dinger composite score against Michael Lorenzen today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 5, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 4](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-4-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS @ DET (Jovani Morán vs Framber Valdez) - 6:40 PM ET - TOR @ TB (Kevin Gausman vs Drew Rasmussen) - 6:40 PM ET - ATH @ PHI (Luis Severino vs Cristopher Sánchez) - 6:40 PM ET - BAL @ MIA (Chris Bassitt vs Sandy Alcantara) - 6:40 PM ET - MIN @ WSH (Taj Bradley vs Cade Cavalli) - 6:45 PM ET - TEX @ NYY (Jacob deGrom vs Elmer Rodríguez) - 7:05 PM ET - CIN @ CHC (Andrew Abbott vs Jameson Taillon) - 7:40 PM ET - CLE @ KC (Gavin Williams vs Stephen Kolek) - 7:40 PM ET - MIL @ STL (Brandon Sproat vs Andre Pallante) - 7:45 PM ET - LAD @ HOU (Shohei Ohtani vs Peter Lambert) - 8:10 PM ET - NYM @ COL (Freddy Peralta vs Michael Lorenzen) - 8:40 PM ET - CWS @ LAA (Erick Fedde vs TBD) - 9:38 PM ET - PIT @ AZ (Bubba Chandler vs Eduardo Rodriguez) - 9:40 PM ET - ATL @ SEA (Bryce Elder vs George Kirby) - 9:40 PM ET - SD @ SF (Walker Buehler vs Logan Webb) - 9:45 PM ET ## Pick 1: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Jacob deGrom (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 13 HR · 27.8% barrel · 105.7 mph EV · 0.677 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.16* **Top play tonight.** Recency bias is real, but so is 4 HR in 7 games while hitting .400. Aaron Judge is locked in, and Jacob deGrom is not the arm to cool him off. The barrel rate (27.8%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. ## Pick 2: Jordan Walker — STL vs Brandon Sproat (RHP) *Busch Stadium · 10 HR · 20.7% barrel · 106.9 mph EV · 0.583 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.40* Lock in on the matchup math: 16% of Brandon Sproat's pitches are his curveball, and hitters are punishing it (.667 SLG). Jordan Walker has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. A 20.7% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Walker has been swinging at peak — 2 long balls in his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Juan Soto — NYM vs Michael Lorenzen (RHP) *Coors Field · 3 HR · 22.8% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.628 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.59* Lock in on the matchup math: 20% of Michael Lorenzen's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.714 SLG). Juan Soto has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Underneath the matchup is a 22.8% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Hot streak is real: 2 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. ## Honorable Mentions - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Freddy Peralta — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Erick Fedde — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Jacob deGrom — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs George Kirby — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Nathaniel Lowe** (CIN) vs Jameson Taillon — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-5-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*