# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 4, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for May 4, 2026 - Juan Soto leads the board across 12 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-04 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-4-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, May 4, 2026** are Juan Soto (Score: 70 — Juan Soto rates a 69.5 dinger composite score against Tomoyuki Sugano today), Aaron Judge (Score: 66 — Aaron Judge rates a 65.9 dinger composite score against Shane Baz today), Matt Olson (Score: 65 — Matt Olson rates a 65.2 dinger composite score against Logan Gilbert today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 4, 2026 203 batters, 12 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 3](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-3-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - NYM @ COL (TBD vs Tomoyuki Sugano) - 5:40 PM ET - BOS @ DET (Payton Tolle vs Tarik Skubal) - 6:40 PM ET - TOR @ TB (Eric Lauer vs Nick Martinez) - 6:40 PM ET - PHI @ MIA (Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk) - 6:40 PM ET - BAL @ NYY (Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler) - 7:05 PM ET - CIN @ CHC (Chase Petty vs Edward Cabrera) - 7:40 PM ET - CLE @ KC (Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha) - 7:40 PM ET - MIL @ STL (Chad Patrick vs Kyle Leahy) - 7:45 PM ET - LAD @ HOU (Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Steven Okert) - 8:10 PM ET - CWS @ LAA (Davis Martin vs José Soriano) - 9:38 PM ET - ATL @ SEA (JR Ritchie vs Logan Gilbert) - 9:40 PM ET - SD @ SF (Randy Vásquez vs Trevor McDonald) - 9:45 PM ET ## Pick 1: Juan Soto — NYM vs Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) *Coors Field · 3 HR · 24.1% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.672 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.44* **Top play tonight.** The reason Juan Soto jumps off the board: Tomoyuki Sugano can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.778 against this season. 15% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Juan Soto is going to see it. Soto squares the ball up at 24.1% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Soto is on a serious heater right now — 2 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. Park factor is the kicker: 5,200 ft means warning-track flies become souvenirs. ## Pick 2: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Shane Baz (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 12 HR · 26.3% barrel · 105.5 mph EV · 0.658 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.79* Aaron Judge's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Shane Baz leans on a 4-seam fastball 38% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .649 against it. His 26.3% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way — 4 HR over his last 7 games. One small concern: 48°F at first pitch will eat a few feet off any deep drive. One reason to size down: Shane Baz has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.79 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Matt Olson — ATL vs Logan Gilbert (RHP) *T-Mobile Park · 11 HR · 18.8% barrel · 104.6 mph EV · 0.595 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.95* Logan Gilbert throws his 4-seam fastball 30% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.704 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Matt Olson should be sitting on. Olson squares the ball up at 18.8% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. ## Honorable Mentions - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto — 17.0% barrel rate. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Davis Martin — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Shane Baz — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Janson Junk — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Steven Okert — 17.9% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-4-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*