# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 25, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 13-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-05-25 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, May 25, 2026** are Luke Raley (Score: 70 — Luke Raley rates a 70.3 dinger composite score against Aaron Civale today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 69 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 69.2 dinger composite score against Randy Vásquez today), James Wood (Score: 67 — James Wood rates a 67.4 dinger composite score against Tanner Bibee today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 25, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 13-game slate. 224 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 24](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CHC @ PIT (Ben Brown vs Carmen Mlodzinski) - 1:35 PM ET - TB @ BAL (Shane McClanahan vs Kyle Bradish) - 1:35 PM ET - MIN @ CWS (Zebby Matthews vs TBD) - 2:10 PM ET - STL @ MIL (Michael McGreevy vs Jacob Misiorowski) - 2:10 PM ET - NYY @ KC (Will Warren vs TBD) - 3:40 PM ET - CIN @ NYM (Nick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean) - 4:10 PM ET - AZ @ SF (TBD vs Landen Roupp) - 5:05 PM ET - WSH @ CLE (Zack Littell vs Tanner Bibee) - 6:10 PM ET - PHI @ SD (Jesús Luzardo vs Randy Vásquez) - 6:40 PM ET - HOU @ TEX (Tatsuya Imai vs Kumar Rocker) - 7:05 PM ET - MIA @ TOR (Janson Junk vs Trey Yesavage) - 7:07 PM ET - COL @ LAD (Kyle Freeland vs Emmet Sheehan) - 9:10 PM ET - SEA @ ATH (Bryce Miller vs Aaron Civale) - 9:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Luke Raley — SEA vs Aaron Civale (RHP) *Sutter Health Park · 10 HR · 22.1% barrel · 103.7 mph EV · 0.581 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.98* **Top play tonight.** The reason Luke Raley jumps off the board: Aaron Civale can be hit on his sinker, which batters are slugging 0.744 against this season. 21% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Luke Raley is going to see it. The barrel rate (22.1%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. A .357 stretch over 7 games says the timing is sharp. Aaron Civale averages just 89.3 mph on the heater — that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. ## Pick 2: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) *Petco Park · 20 HR · 25.9% barrel · 104.3 mph EV · 0.563 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.85* The reason Kyle Schwarber jumps off the board: Randy Vásquez can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.541 against this season. 25% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Kyle Schwarber is going to see it. A 25.9% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. 3 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: James Wood — WSH vs Tanner Bibee (RHP) *Progressive Field · 13 HR · 25.2% barrel · 106.8 mph EV · 0.604 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.93* Lock in on the matchup math: 26% of Tanner Bibee's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.526 SLG). James Wood has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Underneath the matchup is a 25.2% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. He is hitting .379 over his last 7 games — the contact quality is there, the HR follows. Tanner Bibee's 91.0 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. ## Honorable Mentions - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Nick Lodolo — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Kumar Rocker — 17.2% barrel rate. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Kyle Freeland — 18.4% barrel rate. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Kyle Freeland — 17.2% barrel rate. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Zebby Matthews — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-25-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*