# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 24, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for May 24, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Randal Grichuk leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-24 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-24-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, May 24, 2026** are Randal Grichuk (Score: 71 — Randal Grichuk rates a 70.5 dinger composite score against Robbie Ray today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 67 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 66.8 dinger composite score against Parker Messick today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 66 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 65.7 dinger composite score against Robbie Ray today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 24, 2026 15-game slate, 269 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 23](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-23-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PIT @ TOR (Mitch Keller vs Dylan Cease) - 12:15 PM ET - DET @ BAL (Keider Montero vs Trevor Rogers) - 1:35 PM ET - MIN @ BOS (Bailey Ober vs Sonny Gray) - 1:35 PM ET - CLE @ PHI (Parker Messick vs Andrew Painter) - 1:35 PM ET - TB @ NYY (Shane McClanahan vs Will Warren) - 1:35 PM ET - STL @ CIN (Matthew Liberatore vs Brady Singer) - 1:40 PM ET - NYM @ MIA (Christian Scott vs TBD) - 1:40 PM ET - SEA @ KC (Bryan Woo vs Seth Lugo) - 2:10 PM ET - LAD @ MIL (Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Brandon Sproat) - 2:10 PM ET - HOU @ CHC (Peter Lambert vs Shota Imanaga) - 2:20 PM ET - CWS @ SF (Noah Schultz vs Robbie Ray) - 4:05 PM ET - COL @ AZ (Jose Quintana vs Ryne Nelson) - 4:10 PM ET - ATH @ SD (Jacob Lopez vs Michael King) - 4:10 PM ET - WSH @ ATL (Foster Griffin vs Martín Pérez) - 4:10 PM ET - TEX @ LAA (TBD vs Reid Detmers) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Randal Grichuk — CWS vs Robbie Ray (LHP) *Oracle Park · 4 HR · 19.5% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.623 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.46* **Top play tonight.** The reason Randal Grichuk jumps off the board: Robbie Ray can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.551 against this season. 29% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Randal Grichuk is going to see it. Grichuk squares the ball up at 19.5% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Grichuk is on a serious heater right now — 2 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. ## Pick 2: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Parker Messick (LHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 20 HR · 25.9% barrel · 104.3 mph EV · 0.576 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.40* The clearest tell on tonight's HR board: Kyle Schwarber, 4 home runs in his last 7 contests. The barrel is alive, and the matchup says he keeps rolling. Schwarber's 25.9% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Parker Messick has been giving up 1.40 HR/9 this year, well above league average. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Robbie Ray (LHP) *Oracle Park · 17 HR · 21.2% barrel · 105.0 mph EV · 0.543 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.46* Robbie Ray throws his slider 29% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.551 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Munetaka Murakami should be sitting on. A 21.2% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Murakami has been swinging at peak — 2 long balls in his last 7 games. ## Honorable Mentions - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Shota Imanaga — 17.4% barrel rate. - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Robbie Ray — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Brady Singer — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Martín Pérez — 25.8% barrel rate. - **Byron Buxton** (MIN) vs Sonny Gray — 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-24-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*