# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 23, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Kyle Schwarber tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-05-23 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, May 23, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 77 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 77.4 dinger composite score against Slade Cecconi today), Byron Buxton (Score: 71 — Byron Buxton rates a 71.0 dinger composite score against Brayan Bello today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.5 dinger composite score against Colin Rea today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 23, 2026 284 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 22](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB @ NYY (Drew Rasmussen vs Ryan Weathers) - 1:35 PM ET - HOU @ CHC (Kai-Wei Teng vs Colin Rea) - 2:20 PM ET - PIT @ TOR (Paul Skenes vs Patrick Corbin) - 3:07 PM ET - DET @ BAL (Framber Valdez vs Brandon Young) - 4:05 PM ET - CLE @ PHI (Slade Cecconi vs Zack Wheeler) - 4:05 PM ET - CWS @ SF (Erick Fedde vs Adrian Houser) - 4:05 PM ET - SEA @ KC (George Kirby vs Stephen Kolek) - 4:10 PM ET - MIN @ BOS (TBD vs Brayan Bello) - 4:10 PM ET - WSH @ ATL (Jake Irvin vs Grant Holmes) - 4:10 PM ET - NYM @ MIA (Freddy Peralta vs Max Meyer) - 4:10 PM ET - STL @ CIN (Andre Pallante vs Brady Singer) - 7:15 PM ET - LAD @ MIL (Roki Sasaki vs Robert Gasser) - 7:15 PM ET - ATH @ SD (J.T. Ginn vs Lucas Giolito) - 9:40 PM ET - TEX @ LAA (Nathan Eovaldi vs Walbert Ureña) - 10:05 PM ET - COL @ AZ (Michael Lorenzen vs Zac Gallen) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Slade Cecconi (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 20 HR · 25.9% barrel · 104.3 mph EV · 0.576 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.44* **Top play tonight.** The reason Kyle Schwarber jumps off the board: Slade Cecconi can be hit on his curveball, which batters are slugging 0.609 against this season. 15% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Kyle Schwarber is going to see it. Schwarber squares the ball up at 25.9% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. He is also trending the right way — 6 HR over his last 7 games. An 91.4 mph fastball gives Schwarber something to drive. ## Pick 2: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Brayan Bello (RHP) *Fenway Park · 15 HR · 20.0% barrel · 101.2 mph EV · 0.491 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.67* The reason Byron Buxton jumps off the board: Brayan Bello can be hit on his cutter, which batters are slugging 0.903 against this season. 19% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Byron Buxton is going to see it. Buxton squares the ball up at 20.0% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. One small concern: 49°F at first pitch will eat a few feet off any deep drive. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Colin Rea (RHP) *Wrigley Field · 15 HR · 17.4% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.711 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.27* Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Colin Rea leans on a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .480 against it. Alvarez squares the ball up at 17.4% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. ## Honorable Mentions - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Grant Holmes — 25.4% barrel rate. - **JJ Bleday** (CIN) vs Andre Pallante — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Max Meyer — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Brady Singer — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luke Raley** (SEA) vs Stephen Kolek — 22.4% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-23-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*