# MLB Dinger Picks Today (May 20, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for May 20, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Kyle Schwarber leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-05-20 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-20-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, May 20, 2026** are Kyle Schwarber (Score: 72 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 71.7 dinger composite score against Andrew Abbott today), JJ Bleday (Score: 68 — JJ Bleday rates a 67.5 dinger composite score against Aaron Nola today), Byron Buxton (Score: 66 — Byron Buxton rates a 65.8 dinger composite score against Mike Burrows today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - May 20, 2026 267 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - May 19](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-may-19-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CIN @ PHI (Andrew Abbott vs Aaron Nola) - 1:05 PM ET - BAL @ TB (Shane Baz vs Jesse Scholtens) - 1:10 PM ET - HOU @ MIN (Mike Burrows vs Joe Ryan) - 1:40 PM ET - TEX @ COL (Jack Leiter vs Kyle Freeland) - 3:10 PM ET - SF @ AZ (Tyler Mahle vs Merrill Kelly) - 3:40 PM ET - CWS @ SEA (Sean Burke vs Emerson Hancock) - 4:10 PM ET - CLE @ DET (Tanner Bibee vs TBD) - 6:40 PM ET - ATL @ MIA (Chris Sale vs Janson Junk) - 6:40 PM ET - NYM @ WSH (TBD vs Zack Littell) - 6:45 PM ET - TOR @ NYY (Trey Yesavage vs Cam Schlittler) - 7:05 PM ET - BOS @ KC (Connelly Early vs Michael Wacha) - 7:40 PM ET - MIL @ CHC (Kyle Harrison vs Edward Cabrera) - 7:40 PM ET - PIT @ STL (Carmen Mlodzinski vs Michael McGreevy) - 7:45 PM ET - LAD @ SD (Shohei Ohtani vs Randy Vásquez) - 8:40 PM ET - ATH @ LAA (Aaron Civale vs Jack Kochanowicz) - 9:38 PM ET ## Pick 1: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Andrew Abbott (LHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 20 HR · 25.9% barrel · 104.3 mph EV · 0.576 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.96* **Top play tonight.** Streaky players are predictable in one way: they keep streaking until they don't. Kyle Schwarber sits at 6 HR over his last 7 games while hitting .321, and the matchup tonight does nothing to slow him down. His 25.9% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. ## Pick 2: JJ Bleday — CIN vs Aaron Nola (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 6 HR · 14.8% barrel · 103.1 mph EV · 0.622 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.88* Lock in on the matchup math: 28% of Aaron Nola's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.977 SLG). JJ Bleday has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Bleday squares the ball up at 14.8% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Bleday has been swinging at peak — 2 long balls in his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Byron Buxton — MIN vs Mike Burrows (RHP) *Target Field · 15 HR · 21.1% barrel · 101.4 mph EV · 0.503 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.67* Lock in on the matchup math: 27% of Mike Burrows's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.786 SLG). Byron Buxton has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. His 21.1% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. Buxton has been swinging at peak — 4 long balls in his last 7 games. One small concern: 49°F at first pitch will eat a few feet off any deep drive. ## Honorable Mentions - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Joe Ryan — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Emerson Hancock — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luke Raley** (SEA) vs Sean Burke — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Juan Soto** (NYM) vs Zack Littell — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Jack Leiter — 14.4% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-may-20-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*